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popologist
03-30-2009, 04:27 PM
Coca-Cola 17.3%
Pepsi 10.3%
Diet Coke 10.0%
Mt Dew 6.8%
Dr Pepper 6.1%
Diet Pepsi 5.7%
Sprite 5.6%
Fanta 1.8%
Diet Mt Dew 1.8%
Diet Dr Pepper 1.6%

so, once again, Coke Zero misses the top 10, though it's annual growth rate was 36%. Pepsi Max grew at 25%.

also of interest... if recent trends continue, Diet Coke will overtake Pepsi as the #2 soda in the US next year. perhaps that explains the new pepsi logo design. additionally, Dr Pepper overtook Diet Pepsi last year and it's likely that Sprite will overtake Diet Pepsi this year. i don't really have an explanation why Diet Pepsi lost so much market share this year (perhaps Pepsi Max accounts for some of it, but clearly not all of it). Diet Pepsi actually declined more in case volume than Coke Classic, even though Coke outsells Diet Pepsi by 3x.

for the full story and statistics, follow the link:
http://www.beverage-digest.com/pdf/top-10_2009.pdf

popologist
03-30-2009, 06:14 PM
i did some number crunching and, based on other stories i've read on Coke Zero this year, CZ's market share is about 1.5%--just shy of the Top 10.

according to this report, Coke Zero's case volume grew at 36%... or, according to my calculations (which are just estimates), it's case volume grew by about 40 million cases... for a total of about 150 million cases (give or take).

if it's growth continues at a similar pace in 2009... let's say 30% (though it could actually be higher if it is added to more restaurants/fountains), then it's total volume in 2009 would be about 200 million cases... for a total of 1.8%-2.0% market share... which should finally get it into the Top 10.

it should also be pointed out that Coke Zero's growth probably accounted for most of Diet Coke's volume decline (30 million cases)... and some of Coke Classic's decline (40 million cases).

here's a list of case volume gain/decline in 2008 (in millions):

Coke Zero +40.0 (est.)
Mt Dew +6.6
Diet Mt Dew +6.5
Diet Dr Pepper +3.6
Dr Pepper +0.2
Fanta -1.8
Sprite -16.6
Diet Coke -29.7
Coke -42.7
Diet Pepsi -44.6
Pepsi -68.9

i think these case numbers give some perspective as to why pepsi made such drastic changes to its logos. those case volume declines had to be alarming. it will be very embarrassing to Pepsico if Diet Coke knocks Pepsi out of the #2 spot.

CitrusCola
03-30-2009, 08:15 PM
Those volume numbers do give show why Pepsico made the big logo change.

On the sales numbers, do they include flavor variations of each product? Under Fanta, for example, does it include all flavors (orange, grape,...), is Cherry Coke included with Coca Cola, etc.?

Ram0n C0keah0lic
03-30-2009, 08:22 PM
BTW, the new Pepsi and Diet Pepsi logos haven't arrived here yet... only the new Pepsi Max logo (as Pepsi Kick)

popologist
03-30-2009, 08:32 PM
from what i understand, each variation is counted separately. for example, Caffeine Free Diet Coke is counted separately from Diet Coke... and the same goes for the cherry varieties.

the only exception i've ever heard was fanta (but that was never confirmed), though it probably wouldn't make much difference. i'm pretty sure that almost all of fanta's case volume comes from the orange variety.

but maybe someone else can confirm this.

i think the reason that pepsi and diet pepsi are sliding faster than coke and diet coke is because coke products are in more restaurants/fountains... so, while people may be cutting back on the amount of soda they buy at the supermarket b/c of the recession (which would probably effect coke and pepsi about equally)... at restaurants, where coke dominates by a huge margin, people may simply swap going to more expensive restaurants for going to cheaper places... which also sell coke products (and pepsi is less of an option).

that's one of my theories.

my other theory is that, because pepsi has always targeted the youth market, it is losing more market share now because it is primarily youths who are moving to other types of drinks (i.e. waters & energy drinks). meanwhile, their moms are still sipping diet coke. again, just a theory... but it might explain the new logos' more "sophisticated" look...


Those volume numbers do give show why Pepsico made the big logo change.

On the sales numbers, do they include flavor variations of each product? Under Fanta, for example, does it include all flavors (orange, grape,...), is Cherry Coke included with Coca Cola, etc.?

popologist
03-30-2009, 08:34 PM
i think the new logos may have actually hurt their sales... but we won't really know for another year. i don't know what they were thinking. the coke section of the soda aisle is so much more vibrant than the pepsi one now. the navy blue pepsi background is almost invisible. they're going to have to change that. pepsi was always the "fun, youthful" cola... but that logo doesn't say that, in my opinion.

BTW, the new Pepsi and Diet Pepsi logos haven't arrived here yet... only the new Pepsi Max logo (as Pepsi Kick)

fusion
03-30-2009, 08:50 PM
Coke Zero would have made the top ten if Diet Dr Pepper hadn't grown as much as it did.

popologist
03-30-2009, 09:03 PM
this article points out that most of the growth in the soda industry comes from restaurants and fountains. so this kind of backs up one of my theories.
Pepsi vs. Coke (http://www.wright.edu/~tdung/pepsi-coke.htm)

popologist
03-30-2009, 09:13 PM
Coke Zero would have made the top ten if Diet Dr Pepper hadn't grown as much as it did.

there are a lot of sodas bunched up around the 1.5% region--CF Diet Coke, Sierra Mist, etc. but none of them have the growth rate of Coke Zero.

CZ has grown consistently at above 30% since its introduction. of course, it's still at the low-end of the spectrum, so it's easier to grow 36% in a year. even so, it's very likely that it will finally crack the Top 10 this year.

with that kind of growth rate, you'd think that Coke would put CZ everywhere it could (i.e., McDonalds, etc)... but i suspect that they're holding back a little for the sake of Diet Coke. i can only imagine that they really... REALLY... want DC to overtake Pepsi as the #2 soda. it'd be a huge coup and i'm sure they'd put it in commercials. i mean, who wouldn't?

popologist
03-31-2009, 10:47 AM
BTW, the new Pepsi and Diet Pepsi logos haven't arrived here yet... only the new Pepsi Max logo (as Pepsi Kick)

did "new coke" ever reach mexico? i don't think so.

it's very possible if the new pepsi logos are a flop in the US, then they won't be rolled out everywhere else.

Ram0n C0keah0lic
03-31-2009, 11:31 AM
did "new coke" ever reach mexico? i don't think so.

No, probably it was available as an imported soda (in the end of the 80's and the beginning of the 90's american sodas were available here), but as far as I remember here in Mexico Coca-Cola didn't changed its formula, I think that "New Coke" was released only in U.S. and Canada...

Mana211
03-31-2009, 11:37 AM
Coke Zero would have made the top ten if Diet Dr Pepper hadn't grown as much as it did.

Thinking back over the last few years I used to drink

Mello Yello
Coke
Diet Coke
Cherry Coke
Dr Pepper
Diet Dr Pepper
caffeine free Diet Dr Pepper
caffeine free diet coke
C2

now I drink

Coke Zero
Cherry Coke Zero
caffeine free diet coke
Sprite Zero

some of the transitions aren't so obvious

Mello Yello was replaced by C2 which was replaced with Coke Zero as my morning drink. Sprite Zero can't take that spot as it lacks caffeine and Mello Yellow Zero doesn't exist.

Unfortunately diet Mello Yello sits on the shelf until it tastes like utter crap when you buy it creating a feedback loop that ensures it will never sell well. Moving to a 2 or 3 sweetener mix would improve that but its such a niche drink they'll never do it.

I probably wouldn't be so into Sprite Zero if there were a caffeine free Coke Zero.

I wouldn't be so into Coke products in general if there were a Dr Pepper Zero. Diet Dr Pepper doesn't make the cut as the last time I checked they still were stuck on a single sweetener and it takes two to five sweeteners to make a better reduced calorie soda.

Cherry Dr Pepper drinks don't do it for me so Cherry Coke Zero is untouchable (as in its better than its competition and has no reason to change or fear competition). Unfortunately I can't get Cherry Coke Zero in 24 packs and have to pay the going rate for 12 packs on it.

Pepsi is never on my radar no matter what they do but Dr. Pepper could steal business from coke with either or both of the two possible sweetener changes.

1. Cane Sugar in regular Dr. Pepper across the USA not just Waco and West Jefferson. And no I never saw "Summer" Dr. Pepper with cane sugar anywhere near me.

2. Ace K added to the mix in the drinks that already have aspartame. If they want to use more than two sweeteners OK but aspartame only doesn't cut it anymore.

Anyway that's my take on how/why the changes occur biased heavily by my households purchases.

CitrusCola
03-31-2009, 07:15 PM
I've read that Pepsi went with the new logo to tie in to the youth movement that was following the Obama campaign last year. The modified Pepsi logo looks like the one that Obama used. Was that a smart move? I guess time will tell.

It would be interesting to see the ranking of sale figures for the different soft drink flavors -- top selling colas, top selling citrus drinks, top selling lemon-lime drinks, etc.

popologist
04-08-2009, 02:45 PM
yeah. i'd like to see more detailed numbers as well. not to mention a full ranking of all soda brands/flavors (or at least the top 100).

Tannerman
04-09-2009, 06:50 PM
popologist, excellent coverage and conversation on this topic. Thanks for crunching some numbers.

So here's a question as we look at the data. If you take the regular/diet/zeroized combination from the big two and add them together...

Thus, Pepsi+Diet Pepsi+Pepsi Max and Coke+Diet Coke+Coke Zero, are we just seeing movement within those 3 silos, with different sales totals stealing from each other, or is there any real growth? As you noted, Max and Zero are probably taking from their Diet and maybe even non-Diet siblings, but I don't really see them going beyond those core audiences. I haven't done the math myself, but it's just an observation. Please, prove me an idiot if needed :)

popologist
04-10-2009, 09:20 AM
popologist, excellent coverage and conversation on this topic. Thanks for crunching some numbers.

So here's a question as we look at the data. If you take the regular/diet/zeroized combination from the big two and add them together...

Thus, Pepsi+Diet Pepsi+Pepsi Max and Coke+Diet Coke+Coke Zero, are we just seeing movement within those 3 silos, with different sales totals stealing from each other, or is there any real growth? As you noted, Max and Zero are probably taking from their Diet and maybe even non-Diet siblings, but I don't really see them going beyond those core audiences. I haven't done the math myself, but it's just an observation. Please, prove me an idiot if needed :)

i've been watching these numbers for years and, both, soda giants had wild case volume growth through the 1990s up to the early 2000s... but, then, case volume has been steadily sliding since about 2001. up until the recession (in the last 2 years), a lot of that slide was in the sugar versions (coke & pepsi), while the diet versions showed mild growth. a lot of these losses were attributed to competition from healthier options, like sports drinks, teas and waters... and many analysts predict that the soda companies are about to hit a bottom... and will then start growing again.

the reason that coca-cola products have been sliding a little slower than pepsico's is because coke controls about 66% of the fountain/restaurant business, and pepsi only about 22%... and most of the growth in the soda industry has been in the fountain/restaurant sector.

i'm no expert, but i wouldn't be surprised if coke and pepsi slide again this year (because of the recession), and then start rebounding next year (particularly, their diet/zero versions).