PDA

View Full Version : Diet Coke unseats Pepsi as #2 soft drink in the US...



popologist
03-18-2011, 09:01 AM
I predicted this two years ago... based on the trends. I guess 2010 was the year.

I don't actually drink Diet Coke anymore... or regular Coke for that matter (I'm a Coke Zero man), but this is a pretty big coup in the beverage world.

http://www.beverage-digest.com/pdf/top-10_2011.pdf

UncleBob
03-18-2011, 11:08 AM
I wonder if any of this has to do with Throwback. I know, personally, I very *rarely* drink a regular Pepsi anymore - I just don't like it very much... and I used to drink it quite often.

The only main market I can see Throwback pulling from is the base Pepsi drinking market... and since the product apparently sold well enough to stick around, I'd really be interested in seeing the Pepsi+Throwback figures in comparison to Diet Coke.

popologist
03-18-2011, 02:23 PM
Well, to be fair... Coke has a huge advantage because it controls 70% of soda fountains (i.e., restaurants, etc). In supermarkets, where people have a choice, the competition is probably much closer.

lordmadone
03-18-2011, 08:10 PM
I am sure the big wigs at Pepsico are mulling over an action plan to undo this "tragedy". I know personally YTD my facility is up 15% in pepsi-cola brand alone and that was before this huge week we just had. I doubt that blip on the radar screen will stay that way. Pepsi is too cherished of a brand to be number 2 to a diet brand. This is MY prediction..that it will take its market share back and gain #2 easily by next year. Remember.. diet coke didn't gain it by having more numbers really..it just gained the spot by LOSING less. I am sure the pepsi throwback contributed to the cannibalization undoubtedly but it is tapping into a different consumer base. This will be a big year for pepsi brands..mark my words.

cokeman19
03-18-2011, 08:59 PM
i'd like to see a full list to see where coke zero and pepsi max compare. sprite seems to be doing well.

popologist
03-19-2011, 12:11 AM
Coke Zero outsells Pepsi Max by quite a bit in the US. I can't remember the exact numbers, but I think it's about 3-4 times as much. It probably doesn't help that Max has to compete with Pepsi One as well.

On the other hand, in the UK, Pepsi Max (which has been out longer than CZ there) outsells Coke Zero by about double, I think.

popologist
03-19-2011, 12:25 AM
Until a few years ago, Diet Coke's market share was growing every year (as were other diet/zero soft drinks). Coke Zero clearly had an impact because, soon after its release, Diet Coke's growth sputtered a little bit... and then the recession hit and Diet Coke's growth stopped & it pretty much remained flat.

Meanwhile, Coke & Pepsi (the sugary versions) have been losing market share for about a decade... for many reasons (i.e., competition from sports drinks & flavored waters, etc). Eventually though, many analysts expect the declines to hit a bottom, and then growth will start again (perhaps once the economy fully bounces back).

I can't help but wonder whether the logo change has affected Pepsi's sales. I mean, if you look at the numbers, both, Pepsi & Diet Pepsi fell dramatically more than everything else.

Themaster73
03-19-2011, 12:51 AM
Without the fountains (and Walmart) Mountain Dew would be ahead of Diet Coke

Mountain Dew passes Diet Coke, becomes No. 3 soft drink in U.S. *| ajc.com (http://www.ajc.com/business/mountain-dew-passes-diet-691854.html)

Themaster73
03-19-2011, 12:59 AM
Pepsi should just switch to sugar completely for Pepsi and CF Pepsi. People will have a choice between three different sugar sweetened Pepsi drinks. Making a longer run of KP Pepsi would be a start (it helps for Coke, who seems to have a lot of extra KP Coke even after Passover).

popologist
03-19-2011, 05:37 AM
But why would you ignore 70% of the market?


Without the fountains (and Walmart) Mountain Dew would be ahead of Diet Coke

Mountain Dew passes Diet Coke, becomes No. 3 soft drink in U.S. | ajc.com (http://www.ajc.com/business/mountain-dew-passes-diet-691854.html)

halloaaryn
03-19-2011, 05:37 AM
Lets kick the new logo AND Indra Nooyi TO THE CURB. This whole rebranding has been a tacky mess since day one. THe new globe is nasty.... lets roll Pepsi back.

BhamCokeman
03-19-2011, 10:06 AM
some can say that spots going to retaken, and it's going to be a huge year for Pepsi brands, but the fact is Diet Coke is there to stay more than likely. Yes it was down as well, but Coke Zero has to had to have a huge impact on that. I honestly can not see where Pepsi Throwback had that much of an influence to drop Pepsi to number 3. Just because your market continues to grow double digits doesn't mean the same for all. We've grown double digits here, while our competition continues to fall flat on their face.

popologist
03-19-2011, 12:21 PM
I doubt that Pepsi Throwback explains regular Pepsi's market share decline because, if you look at the overall numbers for PepsiCo and Coca-Cola, PepsiCo's market share dropped 5x more than Coke's did. That goes for, both, Pepsi & Diet Pepsi. They both have the new logo & they both fell 5x more than their Coke counterparts.

So I think it's more likely the logo, or perhaps an advertising problem. Coke spent almost twice as much on advertising last year as Pepsi.

lordmadone
03-19-2011, 05:06 PM
some can say that spots going to retaken, and it's going to be a huge year for Pepsi brands, but the fact is Diet Coke is there to stay more than likely. Yes it was down as well, but Coke Zero has to had to have a huge impact on that. I honestly can not see where Pepsi Throwback had that much of an influence to drop Pepsi to number 3. Just because your market continues to grow double digits doesn't mean the same for all. We've grown double digits here, while our competition continues to fall flat on their face.

Maybe quote me next time to know you are responding to me directly?

Please be a bit more assertive in your methods of logic..the bias is bleeding through my screen. I know may seem bias but at least I am a bit objective. Your personal opinion shows the double standard. You don't think Pepsi throwback had an influence(even though it had a HUGE! year last year) yet you give benefit to Diet coke coming down by Coke Zero's influence? Give me a break. Coke Zero was up only 17.5% ..I doubt sincerely it is cannibalizing diet coke that much more.

My market is very good at being a correlation to the national market in terms of trends for much of our brand selection. Pepsi was down big for us last year..and it shows in numbers..same with diet pepsi(nationally and locally). Not much advertising honestly has been put into either of those two brands. Now on the other hand Pepsi max is up 200% so far this year as a brand and it was up even more than that last year. So I am positive it is gaining on Coke Zero heavily.. especially the huge push they have been making(Pepsi max commercials everywhere!)..comparing it to Zero when it is honestly a different product(other than "diet") entirely.

BhamCokeman
03-20-2011, 05:29 PM
[QUOTE=lordmadone;376104]Maybe quote me next time to know you are responding to me directly?

Please be a bit more assertive in your methods of logic..the bias is bleeding through my screen. I know may seem bias but at least I am a bit objective. Your personal opinion shows the double standard. You don't think Pepsi throwback had an influence(even though it had a HUGE! year last year) yet you give benefit to Diet coke coming down by Coke Zero's influence? Give me a break. Coke Zero was up only 17.5% ..I doubt sincerely it is cannibalizing diet coke that much more.

My market is very good at being a correlation to the national market in terms of trends for much of our brand selection. Pepsi was down big for us last year..and it shows in numbers..same with diet pepsi(nationally and locally). Not much advertising honestly has been put into either of those two brands. Now on the other hand Pepsi max is up 200% so far this year as a brand and it was up even more than that last year. So I am positive it is gaining on Coke Zero heavily.. especially the huge push they have been making(Pepsi max commercials everywhere!)..comparing it to Zero when it is honestly a different product(other than "diet") entirely.[/QU

Is this good enough for you? When is your market not a good correlation? I'm just going to be biased like you. Sorry, but I am just a believer, and a great salesman, and I am going to stick up for my company(which by the way wipes the floor with Buffalo Rock everyday).

popologist
03-21-2011, 11:28 AM
I think it's unlikely that Pepsi will recapture the #2 spot anytime soon (unless something drastic changes). The data & trends just don't support that. The reality is that Coke controls 70% of soda fountains & restaurants. Which means, Coke is available 62% of the time, and Pepsi is only available 38% of the time. That's a huge advantage for Coke, and probably explains why PepsiCo has been losing market share 5x faster than Coca-Cola for almost a decade now.

I think PepsiCo made a big mistake when it bought fast food restaurants in the 90s (i.e., Taco Bell, KFC, etc), which put them directly at odds with other restaurants like McDonald's, etc. Coke moved in and signed long contracts with these other restaurants (which was very smart), and so many restaurants are locked-in with Coke products (sometimes for almost 100 years). Pepsi realized the mistake and sold off the restaurants, but by then it was too late. I think they then made the same mistake again by buying Frito-Lay. Chips & snacks directly compete with fast food restaurants for the quick snack/meal dollar... and Coke took advantage of the situation. So, while owning Frito-Lay probably helps PepsiCo in supermarkets (by offering special deals), it hurt them in fountains & restaurants... which are a greater slice of the CSD pie (about 2/3).