Beverage Digest just put up their top ten for 2009, and Coke Zero didn't make it. CZ was up 20% to 116 million cases, but well short of #10 Diet Dr Pepper at 165 million. Didn't help that Coke Zero is still not at McDonald's, or that DDP and Diet Dew both grew over 4%. Interesting that they're calling Pepsi and Diet Coke a virtual tie at #2.

In all fairness, Diet DP and Dew don't have placement at McDonald's either, although they might have a slightly higher fountain presence overall. Of course, it helps that they both have been around for years, and that they don't have a similar product from the same company (like Diet Coke) competing for the spotlight.

But that said, if Zero could get into McDonald's or even Burger King, it could finally get pushed over the top.

Is Fanta still in the top 10? I'm wondering how much Crush ate into its sales. Maybe Crush's new association with Pepsi bottlers is a big part of why DPSG gained market share.

I predicted last year that Diet Coke would pass Pepsi in a year or two. It looks like it will be in 2010.

As for Coke Zero... yeah, it would definitely help if it got some fountain space at McDonald's. It would also help if Coke would stop targeting it at males... and focus on CZ's true strength--it's great taste. My guess is that Coca-Cola Co doesn't want Coke Zero competing with Diet Coke (which is so close to passing Pepsi) and so they're not benefiting from its full potential. Not to mention that Coke Zero still doesn't get enough shelf space (at least in NYC). Coke Zero is often picked over when I go shopping (with only a few bottles left on the shelf, especially after I stock up)... while Diet Coke always has plenty of product. My point being... if I go to a store and they're out of Coke Zero, I do NOT buy Diet Coke. I either buy nothing, or buy Diet Dr Pepper. Coke needs to wake-up and give CZ the respect it deserves!

As for PepsiCo... it seems the logo changes didn't help market share at all. It's case volume actually fell more in 2009 (-5.0%) than in 2008 (-4.0%). I wonder if they'll switch it back now...

Soda brand market share for 2009 (case volume growth/decline is in parentheses):

Coke 17.0% (-4.0%)
Pepsi 9.9 (-5.5) [case volume = 936.4 million]
Diet Coke 9.9 (-2.5) [case volume = 936.3 million]
Mt Dew 6.7 (-3.5)
Dr Pepper 6.1 (-1.7)
Diet Pepsi 5.6 (-4.5)
Sprite 5.5 (-4.0)
Diet Mt Dew 1.9 (+4.5)
Fanta 1.8 (-4.0)
Diet Dr Pepper 1.8 (+4.8)

Note: The numbers for Pepsi & Diet Coke are "rounded," which is why it's considered a tie. No one really knows which one actually sold more than the other.

At 116 million cases, Coke Zero's market share would be approximately 1.23%... so it still has a ways to go to reach the Top Ten. If it grows at 20% for three more years, it will pass 2.0 market share.

Coca-Cola Company 41.9% (-3.9%)
PepsiCo 29.9 (-5.0)
Dr Pepper/Snapple 16.4 (+4.8)

Originally Posted by popologist

I predicted last year that Diet Coke would pass Pepsi in a year or two. It looks like it will be in 2010.

As for Coke Zero... yeah, it would definitely help if it got some fountain space at McDonald's. It would also help if Coke would stop targeting it at males... and focus on CZ's true strength--it's great taste. My guess is that Coca-Cola Co doesn't want Coke Zero competing with Diet Coke (which is so close to passing Pepsi) and so they're not benefiting from its full potential. Not to mention that Coke Zero still doesn't get enough shelf space (at least in NYC). Coke Zero is often picked over when I go shopping (with only a few bottles left on the shelf, especially after I stock up)... while Diet Coke always has plenty of product. My point being... if I go to a store and they're out of Coke Zero, I do NOT buy Diet Coke. I either buy nothing, or buy Diet Dr Pepper. Coke needs to wake-up and give CZ the respect it deserves!

As for Pepsi... it doesn't look like the new logo helped Pepsi much at all. It's market share fell almost exactly the same amount as last year.

Pepsi Throwback likely took sales away from both Coke and Pepsi. If Pepsi Throwback does well it would be no surprise that regular Pepsi would fall.
In NYC regular Pepsi outnumbers Diet Coke in many stores. Diet Coke is just lucky to be in all of those restaurants.

Diet Coke has one advantage over Coke Zero, Kosher for Passover Certification doesn't help CZ sales during Passover.

Pepsi is really #2 while Diet Coke is really #3 in total numbers

If I am not mistaken you said 1 year popologist. Also the declines if am not mistaken were heavier in earlier years..percentage wise..this time it is technically flat in its losses. If it continues diet coke could have the number two...but not because of gains..but less losses. Not saying a WHOLE lot but I guess its a victory nonetheless. One brand among hundreds.

I found a Coke fridge with 20oz recently. They were toatally out of everything except for ALOT of Dr.Pepper and a whole half row of Coke Zero.
I had a good chuckle at that.

Sales of Crush were up 377% after the Pepsi distribution deal. The addition of the cherry flavor extension seemed to have helped Dr Pepper and Diet Dr Pepper. Look at this article:

News Headlines

What I said last year was "if recent trends continue, Diet Coke will overtake Pepsi as the #2 soda in the US next year."

http://www.bevnet.com/bevboard/bevbo...as-2008-a.html

Since Beverage Digest is calling it a "tie"... I'd say I was pretty close. The reason Diet Coke isn't the undisputed #2 is because the "recent trends" I referred to last year changed a little. Last year, Diet Coke held steady. This year, it lost some market share... therefore, we have a tie.

Admittedly, my calculations for Coke Zero were pretty far off though.

Here's a link to the Beverage Digest article:
http://www.beverage-digest.com/pdf/top-10_2010.pdf