Non-alcoholic beverage sales remained stable across the two-week period ending May 4, 2024, as volume growth picked up while pricing moderated, according to the latest analysis of NielsenIQ scanner data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
- Total dollar sales in U.S. retail grew +2.8% in the two-week period, up slightly from +2.6% in the four-weeks and +2.2% in the 12-weeks.
- Volume growth picked up to +0.9% in the two-weeks, versus +0.3% in the four-weeks and -0.3% in the 12-weeks.
- In some inflationary easing, pricing growth slowed to +1.9%, versus +2.4% in the four-weeks and +2.5% in the 12-weeks.
CSDs
Carbonated soft drink sales accelerated in the two-week period, up +6%, compared to +4.7% in the four-weeks. Volume sales improved to +0.5%, returning to growth after a -1.5% drop in the four-weeks, while pricing slowed to +5.4%, versus +6.3% in the four-weeks.
The Coca-Cola Company reported dollar sales up +6.9% (+5% in the four-weeks) with volume gains of +1.8% and average pricing growth of +5%. PepsiCo sales climbed +2.3% (+2.1% in the four-weeks) against a -1.5% volume dip and +3.8% average price increase. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) grew sales +4.9% (+3.1% in the four-weeks) as volume was down -0.4% and pricing grew by +5.2%.
Better-for-you soda maker Poppi continued to jump triple-digits with +139.7% dollar sales growth (+130.6% in the four-weeks) and volume up +128.6%. Average pricing jumped +4.8%. Stevia-sweetened brand Zevia was down -5.9% (+0.1% for four-weeks) as volumes dropped a steep -16.2% and pricing leaped up by +12.4%.
Energy Drinks
Energy decelerated slightly, growing sales by +2.8% in the two-week period, compared to +3% in the four-weeks. Volume sales were up +1.8% (+1.9% for four-weeks) as pricing rose just +1% (+1.1% for four-weeks).
Category leader Monster, excluding Bang, saw declines accelerate slightly to -0.4% (-0.2% in the four-weeks) while volume was down -1% and pricing up just +0.5%. Red Bull fared a little better in dollar sales, up +3.2% (+3.1% for four-weeks), but slightly worse when it came to volume, down -1.3% volume as +4.6% pricing offset the slide.
Celsius continues to be among the fastest growing brands in the category, up +45.6% in the two-weeks (+48% for four-weeks) with volume up +51.7% and average pricing down by -4%. However, its distribution partner, PepsiCo (Rockstar and MTN Dew) continues to struggle in the market with its owned energy portfolio, which fell -19.9% in the period (-20.4% for four-weeks) as -17.3% volume and a -3.1% price dip sustained the double-digit decline.
Nutrabolt/C4 (+30.5%) and Alani Nu (+50%) maintained double digit growth, while Ghost grew 8.1% in the two-weeks. But 5-Hour Energy (-8.6%), PRIME (-63.7%) and A Shoc (-44.5%) reported dollar sales declines.
Bottled Water
Water sales picked up, growing +2.4% in the two-weeks, compared to +1.3% in the four-weeks. Volume growth was nearly in line with dollar sales, up +2.3% (+1.8% for four-weeks) as average pricing ticked up a mere +0.2% (-0.5% for four-weeks).
Private label sales, which lead the category, were up +4.4% against +4% volume and +0.4% pricing, while top branded water maker BlueTriton reported +3.1% growth with +4.3% volume and -1.1% average pricing.
Coke (+0.7%), CG Roxane (+0.3%), Danone North America (+17.4%), Niagara Bottling (+4.1%) and Liquid Death (+4.2%) all posted positive dollar sales gains in the two-weeks. However, PepsiCo (-0.3%), Fiji (-1.3%), Nestle Holdings (-2.9%), KDP (-7.3%) and flavored water maker Hint (-17%) were all down in the period.
Sports Drinks
In contrast to most of the non-alc beverage sector, sports drink sales were down -9.1% in the two-week period, rapidly sliding from -4.3% in the four-weeks, as a -12.7% volume decline (-8.5% for four-weeks) was too much for +4.1% average pricing growth (+4.5% for four-weeks) to offset.
PepsiCo (Gatorade) sales fell -9.1% in the two-weeks (-4.2% for four-weeks) alongside volume declines of -14% and average price increase of +5.7%. Coke (BodyArmor and Powerade) performed similarly, down -9.8% (-6.8% for four-weeks) with volume down -11.6% and average pricing up +2.3%.
PRIME also faced a drop-off, as dollar sales were down -24% (-15.2% in the four-weeks) against -23.8% volume and -0.2% average pricing. However, Electrolit bucked the trend, growing +21.8% (+26.9% for four-weeks) with volume up +21.1% and average pricing up +0.6%.
Sparkling Water
Sparkling waters grew sales by +8.2% in the two-week period (+8.1% for the four-weeks), with volume sales accelerating to +5.2% (+4.5% in the four-weeks) and average pricing up +2.9% (+3.5%).
Sales of Talking Rain decelerated, growing +9.7% (+12.2% for four-weeks) while volume was up +13.8% and average pricing declined -3.6%. LaCroix maker National Beverage Corp was down -2.6% in the period (-3.1% for four-weeks), as -7.1% pricing undercut +6.3% volume gains. Nestle Holdings also fell -1.3%, with volume sliding -1% and average pricing down by -0.3%.
Polar (+5.3%), Coke’s AHA (+16.3%), PepsiCo’s Bubly (+12.5%), Spindrift (+13.7%), Waterloo (+34.8%) and Liquid Death (+25%) all posted positive dollar sales gains.
RTD Coffee
Coffee’s sales declines hastened, falling -6.4% in the two-week period, versus -5.6% in the four-week period. Volume sales fell -5.9% (-5% for four-weeks) while average pricing was consistent at -0.6% across the two- and four-weeks.
Starbucks reported a -10% dollar sales decline in the two-weeks (-9.3% for four-weeks) with -13.1% volume and +3.5% average pricing. Meanwhile, Danone’s STOK maintained growth at +13% (+14.2% for four-weeks) at +8.7% volume gains and +4% average pricing.
Black Rifle (-6.9%), Coke (-21.3%) and Kitu Life’s Super Coffee (-30.1%) all declined in the two-week period, while Califia Farms rebounded to +13.1% dollar sales.
Coconut Water
Though it’s the smallest by dollar value at $696.7 million, coconut water was again the fastest growing of Goldman’s tracked categories at +12.2% dollar sales in the two-week period, up slightly from +12% in the four-weeks. Volume sales came in at +13.3% (+13.4% for four-weeks) as average pricing declined -1% (-1.2% for four-weeks).
Category leader Vita Coco grew sales by +8.3% (+7.2% in the four-weeks) with volume up +7.1% and average pricing up +1.2%. All other tracked brands were up double digits, including Harmless Harvest (+11.4%), Goya (+19.4%), private label products (+15%), C2O (+20.2%), Sun Hing Foods (+16.4%), Brooklyn Bottling Group (+31.8%) and Axis Corporativo S.A. (+43.4%).