Non-alcoholic beverage sales remained “robust” in the two-week period ending October 22, despite flat sequential growth, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
Total beverage dollar sales grew 12.2% year-over-year in the two-week period, equivalent to growth in the four and 12-week periods (sales were up 12.1% for the 52-weeks). Despite the double-digit performance, volume sales decelerated year-over-year, down -2.4% in the two-weeks compared to -1.4% in the four-week period and -1.2% for 12-weeks. Average pricing increased 14.6% in the period (+13.6% for four-weeks and +13.4% for 12-weeks), reflecting double-digit increases in “nearly all key non-alc categories including CSDs, energy drinks, sports drinks and bottled water,” Goldman reported.
On a three-year stack basis, total dollar sales were up 39.9% for the two-weeks, versus 37.7% for four-weeks and 35.4% growth for 12-weeks.
Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs)
CSD dollar sales accelerated slightly, up 15.7% in the two-week period (+15.1% in the four-week period) against a -0.3% drop in volume and a 16% increase in pricing. The Coca-Cola Company’s dollar sales were up 18.3% in the two-weeks with 1.4% volume growth and 16.7% average pricing increase. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)’s sales were up 14.7% (-1.4% to volume and +16.4% for pricing) while PepsiCo improved by 11.9% (-2.8% to volume and +15.1% for pricing).
Energy Drinks
Energy dollar sales growth reported modest deceleration, growing 11.4% in the two-weeks, versus 11.8% in the four-week period and 11.6% for 12-weeks. Volume sales were up 1.6% (+1.8% for four-weeks) and average pricing climbed 9.7% (flat with four-weeks).
Monster Energy outpaced the category, growing sales by 12.3% (+12.2% for four-weeks) against 0.9% volume improvement and an 11.3% pricing jump. Red Bull posted 7.2% dollar sales growth with a -0.7% drop in volume and 7.9% pricing increase. PepsiCo (Rockstar, MTN Dew) sales fell -0.8% with volume dropping -10.6%, an improvement from -1% sales and -11.4% volume declines in the four-week period. Starbucks was up 16.2% with volume rising by 6.4%.
Among the emerging performance energy brands, CELSIUS grew sales by 113.4% (volume +118.3%), Nutrabolt/C4 was up 98.3% (volume +98.9%), Ghost jumped 1,286% (volume +1231.1%) and ZOA improved 6.5% (volume +4.8%).
Bang Energy, currently navigating the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process and rumored to be facing delisting at some major retail chains, reported a -32.8% drop in sales in the two weeks with volume falling -37.1%.
Bottled Water
Bottled water sales were up 10.9% in the two-weeks (+12.9% in the four-weeks) with a -3.5% drop in volume and 14.9% pricing jump. Private label sales outpaced the category, up 25.4% with volume growing 4%. Blue Triton Brands reported a -1.9% decline in sales and a steep 17.2% volume drop. Coke (+9%), Pepsi (+0.5%) and KDP (+23.7%) all reported positive dollar sales gains.
Sports Drinks
The category was up 8.2% in the two-week period (+7.3% for the four-weeks). Volume declined by -4.7% and pricing rose 13.6%. PepsiCo (Gatorade) led sales growth, up 13.1%, while Coke (BodyArmor/Powerade) faced a -7.9% decline. Private label sales improved 4.4%.
Tea
Ready-to-drink tea dollar sales increased 8.1% in the two-weeks (+7.5% for four-weeks). Volume was down -2.1% and pricing was up 10.4%. Pepsi/Lipton’s sales fell -1.6% but others in the category reported double-digit improvement including Coke (+13%), AriZona (+10.9%) and Milo’s Tea Company (+34.3%).
Sparkling Flavored Water
Sales of sparkling flavored water were up 4.1% for the two-weeks (+3.8% in four-weeks) while volume fell -5.9% and pricing improved by 10.6%. Talking Rain was down -0.6% in the period, while National Beverage Company (+7.4%), PepsiCo (+2.9%), Polar (+8%) and Spindrift (+28.7%) saw positive sales increases. Coke (-35.5%) and Nestle Holdings (-21.2%) reported dollar sales declines.
Coffee
RTD coffee sales accelerated, growing 16% in the two-week period (+15.3% in four-weeks) on the back of strong volume increases (+12.2%) and a relatively muted average pricing climb (+3.3%). Starbucks was up 18.3% in the period with volume rising 21.5%, while Danone (STOK) grew 27.6% (+5.8% for volume) and Califia Farms was up 6.1% (-9.4% to volume). However, Coke was down 18.7% (-28.8% to volume) in the period.
Still Flavored Water
Sales grew 5.2% in the two-weeks (+4% for four-weeks) against a -16.5% volume slide and 26% leap in pricing. Coke (+11.7%), PepsiCo (+7.5%), Hint (+0.9%), Kraft Heinz (+6.9%) and In Zone Brands/Good2Grow (+14.3%) all saw dollar sales improvement.