If horse races and taco specials can’t bring consumers to the on-premise, maybe celebrating their mothers will.
As reported earlier this week, the Kentucky Derby (May 3) and Cinco de Mayo (May 5) recorded lackluster year-over-year (YoY) performances for bev-alc in the on-premise, according to BeerBoard data. For the extended weekend of Friday, May 2 (Derby Day) to Monday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo), total bev-alc on-premise sales fell 7.3% versus the same event period in 2024 (May 3-6). Spirits was hit the hardest by lackluster YoY trends, with sales declining 17.5%. Despite Cinco de Mayo, spirits’ heavy hitter tequila recorded a 26% decline in volume and 11% drop in spirits volume share, “indicating few but higher-value pours,” BeerBoard wrote.
However, Mother’s Day should bring some improvement, according to the latest report from CGA, the on-premise arm of market research firm NIQ. Mother’s Day took place Sunday, May 11, but data for the holiday won’t arrive for another couple weeks.
Nearly two-fifths of consumers (38%) said they plan to visit the on-premise for Mother’s Day, a 5 percentage point increase versus CGA’s May 2024 survey. That percentage increases to 39% for 21-34 year-olds, and to 48% for 35-54 year-olds.
Mother’s Day 2024 was the most valuable Sunday of the year, increasing the average Sunday sales velocity at outlets by 80%, driven by increases in check value (+39%) and traffic (+29%). All five key states observed by CGA recorded double-digit increases in sales velocity versus an average Sunday: Illinois (+103%), New York (+90%), Texas (+90%), California (+68%) and Florida (+62%).
Of those who plan to visit the on-premise for this Mother’s Day, 38% plan to go to fine dining restaurants, followed by independent restaurants (36%) and casual dining chains (35%). The majority plan to go in the early evening, between 5 and 8 p.m. (40%), followed by lunch (35%) and brunch (24%).
In 2024, eating outlets recorded the largest velocity boost (+85% versus an average Sunday in 2024), while drinking outlets had a slight increase (+4%). Fine dining restaurants led velocity increases versus an average Sunday (+140%), with double-digit increases in traffic and check value, followed by “polished casual” (+87%) and casual dining (+66%).
Cocktails are expected to be the most popular bev-alc drink this year, chosen by 26% of respondents, followed by beer (23%), table wine (22%), sparkling wine (18%) and whiskey (15%).
Over the last two weeks (data through May 3), the on-premise has recorded inconsistent trends, according to CGA. In the week through Saturday, April 26, the average sales velocity of on-premise outlets increased 7% week-over-week (WoW). However, in the following week (through May 3), velocity dipped 2% WoW, driven by a 2% decline in check value.
In the latest week, on-premise sales velocity is up 4% YoY, led by an increase in check value (+5%) which outweighed a decline in ticket count (-2%). Over the last 12 weeks, on-premise sales velocity has increased 10%.
Trends also varied by state. In the week ending May 3, Florida recorded dominating growth (+23%), led by a sales spike in Orlando. Positive trends were also recorded by New York (+9%) and Illinois (+8%). California was flat, while Texas was in the red (-9%).
However, New York led WoW gains (sales velocity +6%), followed by California (+1%) and Florida (+1%). Illinois (-5%) and Texas (-11%) were both in decline.
About 76% of consumers said they have visited the on-premise to eat in the past month, according to CGA’s May survey, with fieldwork data collected between April 23 and April 25. The results are slightly below CGA’s previous survey, when 77% of consumers said they went out to eat in the past month.
Month-over-month declines were slightly steeper for drink-led occasions, as 47% of survey respondents said they went out for a drink in the past month, versus 50% in the April report.
Of those who visited bars and restaurants in the past month, 39% visited once or twice a week, followed by once or twice a month (37%), three-to-fives times a week (18%) and everyday or almost everyday (6%).
Looking ahead, 77% of consumers plan to go out to eat in the next month (flat versus the April survey), while 45% plan to go out for a drink (-2 percent points versus April).
About one-quarter of respondents (26%) said they plan to visit more frequently over the next month (11% much more frequently, 15% more frequently), while 15% plan to visit less often (3% much less frequently, 12% less frequently). The majority of consumers (59%) plan to maintain their visitation habits.