NielsenIQ: Non-Alc Dollar Sales Slow as Volume Declines Pick Up

As volume declines worsened against stable pricing growth, non-alcoholic beverage sales decelerated sequentially in the two-week period ending June 17, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.

Dollar sales were up 6% in the two-week period, compared to 8.5% growth in the four-week period and 10.1% improvement in the 12-week period. Meanwhile, volume sales fell -6.6% in the two-weeks, compared to a -4.4% drop in the four-weeks. Average pricing was up 12.7% in the period, about in line with 13% growth in the four-week period.

CSDs

Carbonated soft drink sales were up 10.2% in the two-week period, slowing down from 12.1% growth in the four-week period. Volume declines accelerated, falling -6.3% in the period (-4.7% for four-weeks) as average pricing jumped up 17.6%. The Coca-Cola Company reported sales up 12.1% (+13.8% for four-weeks) with volume down -3.6% and pricing up 16.2%. PepsiCo grew sales by 4.7% (+7.3% for four-weeks) as volume fell -12.6% against +19.8% average pricing growth. Sales for Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) grew 10.8% (+12.6% for four-weeks) as volume dipped -7.1% and pricing rose +19.3%.

Energy Drinks

Sales of energy drinks in the two-weeks remained elevated, up 14.9%, versus 15.5% in the four-week period. Volume sales decelerated slightly, growing 4.6% (+5% for four-weeks) and average pricing was up by 9.8%.

Category leader Monster reported dollar sales up 13% in the period, as volume sales rose by 2.2% and average pricing jumped 10.6%. Red Bull improved by 11% with volume up 3.3% and average pricing rising 7.5%. PepsiCo (Rockstar and MTN Dew) grew sales by 12% while volume was down -3.5%, offset by a 16.1% pricing increase.

Performance energy player CELSIUS, which is distributed through PepsiCo, was up 150.1% to $996.8 million in dollar sales, as volume rose 131% and pricing climbed an average 8.3%. Other performance brands including Nutrabolt/C4 (+71.1%), Alani Nu (+26.4%) and Ghost (+134.2%) also reported strong sales growth in the period.

Meanwhile, Bang continued to face steep sales declines, falling -63.3% with volume down -65.9%. Starbucks (-6.5%), A Shoc (-29.3%) and ZOA (-43.3%) also reported declines in dollar sales.

Bottled Water

The bottled water category was flat for the two-week period, compared to 3.3% growth in the four-week period, as 6.2% average pricing offset a -5.8% volume slide.

Blue Triton Brands reported sales down -3.3% while Coke saw sales increase by 1.1% and PepsiCo fell -0.9%. Most other brands reported sales declines, including Fiji (-9.7%), CG Roxane (-5.2%), KDP (-5.1%) and Niagara Bottling (-8.1%). Danone North America, meanwhile, saw sales improve by 7.9%.

Sports Drinks

Sales of sports drinks dropped -4.2% in the two-weeks, a reversal of +1.6% growth in the four-week period, as volume declines hastened to -17.6% and average pricing grew 16.3%. PepsiCo (Gatorade) was down -8.3% in the period while Coke (-14.5%) and BodyArmor (-17.1%), listed separately, both fell double-digits. Mexican import brand Electrolit reported sales up by 3.8%.

RTD Tea

Liquid tea products were up by 2.5% in the two-weeks, decelerating from 4.3% growth in the four-weeks, as 11.1% average pricing growth offset -7.8% volume declines.

Lipton (-2.3%) reported a sales drop, while Coke (+3.9%), AriZona (+5.5%), Milo’s Tea Company (+21%) and Guayaki (+25.6%) saw improvement in the two-week period.

Sparkling Flavored Water

Sales for sparkling flavored water decelerated in the two-week period to +1.3%, versus 3% growth in the four-week period. Volume sales slid -6.8% as average pricing rose by 8.7%.

The top two brands, Talking Rain (-3.5) and LaCroix maker National Beverage Corp. (-10.4%) both reported sales declines while PepsiCo’s Bubly (+3.6%), Polar (+16.3%), Spindrift (+25.9%), Waterloo (+42%), and BUBBL’R (+32.1%) maintained positive sales growth. Coke’s AHA fell -27.5% and Nestlé Holdings was down -40.3%.

RTD Coffee

Liquid coffee reported 3% dollar sales growth in the period, against 4.2% growth in the four-week period, as volume declined by -1.8% and average pricing increased by 4.9%.

Starbucks reported sales up by 4.4% as volume improved 3.1% and average pricing rose just 1.3%. Danone’s STOK was up 13.7% in the period, while Black Rifle Coffee Company grew by 39.3%. However, Coke’s coffee portfolio fell -22.1% as volume dove -43.6% and average pricing jumped 38.1%.

Still Flavored Water

The category reported sales up by 2.5%, a deceleration from 5.8% growth in the four-week period. Volume was down -11.4% and average pricing climbed up 15.6%.

Coke (+2.6%) and PepsiCo (+19.6%) posted positive growth in the two-week period despite volume declines of -8.1% and -1.4% respectively. Hint (-14.2%), Blue Triton (-35.3%), Kraft Heinz (-21.5%) and good2grow (-7.2%) all saw dollar sales decline.