Forget pumpkin spice; nothing tastes better than coffee during tariff season.
Really, what else could stoke deeper appreciation for your previous morning cup as headlines like “A 50% Tariff On All Brazilian Imports Would Be A Disaster For Coffee”? As the impending reality of President Trump’s latest round of tariffs – highlighted by an eye-watering 50% levy on Brazil, the top coffee exporter to the U.S. – set in, here’s what you need to know before things kick off for real (we think) on Wednesday:
Already facing headwinds from global drought, Brazil’s coffee industry has been sweating the prospect of losing its biggest trading partner for weeks, as a 50% tariff would effectively “shut down” that business.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sparked optimism of a possible exemption for coffee (OJ got one to remain at 10%) during an interview earlier this week, but it currently remains in place, along with other major U.S. food imports like beef.
With Brazilian harvests already under pressure from climate change, U.S. coffee producers like JM Smucker (Folgers, Dunkin’, Café Bustelo) have already raised prices this year before the tariffs; as the impact sets in over the coming months, things could look even more different by the end of the year.
- Brazil will likely have eager new customers in China and other countries where coffee demand is spiking; U.S. customers, meanwhile, will turn to smaller countries to supply Arabica beans. That could help spark interest in robusta beans from Vietnam, as popularized in recent RTDs from Sang and Ngyuen Supply Co.
- The average retail price for a cup of coffee in U.S. cities has already increased 9% year-to-date, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Consumers can also expect a healthy hike on the cost of açaí juice and bowls, most of which enters the U.S. as pulp imported from Brazil. The head of Amazon Açaí Producers Association assessed the export situation in an ominous quote: “Right now, we still don’t know how to do it.”