BevAlc: Total Sales Show Slight Improvement

BevAlc: Total Sales Show Slight Improvement; FMBs FlatThe latest data set from NIQ showed a modest improvement in sales growth for total BevAlc in the two-week period before August 10, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs Equity Research.

NIQ uses US x AOC (extended All Outlet Combined) including convenience stores to summarize multi-channel markets and aggregate all national cross-outlet market data, and includes certain retailers (such as Whole Foods Market) that other providers do not.

Here’s the overview:

  • Value declines improved slightly at -1.6% for the two-week period, compared to the -2.0% observed in the four-week period and -0.8% in the 12-weeks.
  • Volume declines also eased, down -3.7% versus -4.1% in the four-weeks and -2.6% in the 12-weeks.
  • Performance improved for beer, wine, hard seltzer and cider, while holding steady for spirits and deteriorating slightly for FMBs.
  • Pricing growth remained stable at +2.2% both for the two-week and four-week periods.

Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Cocktails

Spirit-based RTD sales growth was positive, recording a +12.17% increase, but slightly down from 12.8% in the preceding four-weeks, versus +17.3% in the 12-weeks, and 23.2% in the 52 weeks. Wine-based RTD sales were also consistent, up +24.7% in the two-week period versus +28.3% in the 52-weeks.

High Noon still leads, up +11.2% in the two-weeks, though this was a slight decrease from +12.8% in the prior four-weeks and a drop from +29.6% in the 52-weeks. Volume was up +11.3% in the two weeks with pricing nearly flat at -0.1%. Dollar share is contracting for the brand on both a sequential and year-over-year basis.

Second-place in sales from High Noon is Cutwater, which saw sales rise a bit to +16.8%, with volumes up +15.9% and pricing up +0.8%. Nutl also posted high growth (+38.2%) but slowed versus +81.6% in the 52-week period.

In the hard tea race, Surfsde and Sun Cruiser held a 1.5% and 1.3% share respectively in the latest two-week data, with ACVs of 7% and 11%.

Jack Daniels RTDs continued to face challenges, with sales down by -15.7% in the two-week period, a slight drop from -16% in the four-weeks and a stark contrast to +33.5% growth in the 52-weeks.

Dogfish Head Cocktails (-10.9%), Truly (-36.7%), and White Claw Spirits Cocktails (-47.7%) posted losses.

Flavored Malt Beverages

FMB sales growth remained flat in the two and four-week periods versus +2.6% in the four-weeks and +9.1% in the 52-weeks. Volume was down -2.1% (versus +1.9% in the four-weeks) and average pricing was steady at +2.1%.

Hard tea dipped slightly to +11.5% in the two-weeks versus +12.2% in the four weeks, and +25.5% in the 52-weeks, led by Twisted Tea (+5.6% in the two weeks down from +5.9% in the four.)

Hard Lemonade continued to struggle, but sales were relatively steady recently, down -15.2% in the two-week period from -15.7% in the four-week period and -6.8% over the 52-weeks. The Simply Spiked decline continued with a -35.6% drop over the two weeks versus -15% in the 52-weeks.

Hard Soda decelerated from +3.4% in the four-week period to +2.5% in the two-weeks; the segment is at +22.8% for the 52-weeks. Hard MTN Dew sales were down -15.2% in the two weeks, performing better than the -24.7% in the 12-weeks, as the brand transitions out of Pepsi’s Blue Cloud distribution system.

Hard Seltzer

Hard seltzer continues to struggle with sales declining by -11.6%, a slight improvement from -12.0% in the previous four weeks and -11.7% in the 52-weeks. Volumes were down -14.2% (-14.6% for four-weeks and -15% for 52-weeks), while average pricing remained relatively flat at +3.0%.

Frontrunner White Claw saw sales decelerate slightly to -0.8% in the two-week period versus +0.5% in the four-weeks and +2.1% in the 52-weeks. Truly (-25.1%) Topo Chico Hard Seltzer(-16.5%), Vizzy (-38.3%) and Lone River Ranch Water (-19.1%) all saw double-digit losses. Modelo Ranch Water faced a dip from +7.1% in the 52-weeks to -3.7% in the two.

Happy Dad Seltzer (+74.2%) was the only brand to post gains.