The latest data shows a modest rebound for total BevAlc sales growth in the two-week period ending May 4, reflecting easing volume declines and relatively steady pricing growth, according to Goldman Sachs Equity Research’s latest analysis of NielsenIQ data.
Nielsen uses US x AOC (extended All Outlet Combined) including convenience stores to summarize multi-channel markets and aggregate all national cross-outlet market data, and includes certain retailers (such as Whole Foods Market) that other providers do not.
Here’s the overview:
- Dollar sales slightly increased by 0.3% in the two-week period, up from a -0.7% decrease in the four-weeks and a marginal +0.1% increase in the 12-week period.
- Volume declines eased to -2.6% in the two-weeks, compared to -3.4% in the four-weeks and -2.8% in the twelve-weeks.
- Pricing growth remained steady, with a 2.9% increase in the two-weeks, closely aligned with +2.7% in the four-weeks and +3.0% in the 12-weeks.
- From a category standpoint, volume performance improved for wine, beer, FMB, hard seltzer, and cider, while remaining steady for spirits.
Ready-to-Drink Cocktails
Dollar sales growth for spirit-based RTDs decelerated at +12.2% in the two-weeks, a slight dip from +12.8% in the four-weeks and down from +35.3% in the 52-weeks. Volumes were steady at +14.1% in the two-weeks versus +14.2% in the four-week period but down from +36.7% in the 52-weeks.
Wine-based RTD sales shifted to +23.7% in the two-weeks, down from +25.2% in the four-weeks and +24.2% in the 52-weeks, while volumes dropped +21.7% compared to +23.9% in the four-weeks and +21.8% in the 52-weeks.
High Noon continued to excel with a +26.6% increase in the two-weeks, although cooled from +21.3% in the four-weeks and +44.1% in the 52-weeks. Volume growth mirrored sales at +26.6% with flat average pricing.
Still vying for the second spot, Cutwater saw sales rise +17.9%, with volumes up +15.7% and pricing up +1.9%. Nutl also posted high growth (+77.9%) but slowed versus +142.5% in the 52-week period.
On the other hand, Jack Daniels RTDs faced a significant deceleration, dropping by -24.6% in the two-weeks, a dip from -21.5% in the four-weeks and +130.4% in the 52-weeks.
Dogfish Head Cocktails (-2.6%), Truly (-19.4%), White Claw Spirits Cocktails (-42.2%) posted losses. Fresca Mixed Cocktails – the result of a partnership between Coke and Constellation – reported a +18.6% increase with +15.4% volume and -3.8% average pricing.
Flavored Malt Beverages
FMB sales accelerated in the two-week period at +5.1%, compared to +4.2% in the four-weeks and +15% in the 52-weeks. Volumes were up by +3.6% (+3.3% in the four-weeks) and average pricing growth rose slightly at +1.4%.
Hard Tea sales rose by +22.5% in the two-weeks, maintaining strong performance relative to +21.3% in the four-weeks and +34.2% in the 52-weeks, led by Twisted Tea (+13.1% in the two-weeks).
Hard Lemonade continued its downturn, registering a -9.7% drop in the two-weeks, slightly up from -9.9% in the four-weeks and down from 0% in the 52-weeks. Simply Spiked struggled, with sales plummeting by -27.0% in the two-weeks compared to -24.8% in the four-weeks and 16.9% in the 52-weeks.
Hard Soda sales sharply declined by -19.7% in the two-weeks, versus -6.6% in the four-weeks and +41% in the 52-weeks. Hard MTN Dew faced a continued downturn as the brand transitioned to Boston Beer’s distribution from Pepsi’s Blue Cloud, with sales decreasing by -49.6% in the two weeks, versus -42.9% in the four-weeks and -0.6% in the 52-weeks.
Hard Seltzer
The hard seltzer category continued to decline but eased up, with sales dropping by -9.4% in the two-weeks, an improvement over -10.8% in the four-weeks and -11.2% in the twelve-weeks. Volumes were down -12.2% (-13.6% for four-weeks and -18.5% for 52-weeks), while average pricing remained relatively flat at 3.2%.
Truly showed a slight easing in its sales decline to -19.2% in the two-weeks, from -20.7% in the four-weeks and -26.1% in the 52-weeks. Frontrunner White Claw saw sales grow at +2.1% in the two-week period versus +0.7% in the four-weeks and +1.3% in the 52-weeks. Truly (-19.2%) Topo Chico Hard Cider (-21.6%), Vizzy (-25.7%) and Lone River Ranch Water (-19.%) all saw double-digit losses. On the other hand, Happy Dad Seltzer (+90%) and Model Ranch Water (+21.1%) posted gains.