Bev-alc volumes declined in the two-week period ending June 14 except for cider and some ready-to-drink subcategories, according to analysis of NIQ data from Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
NIQ uses US x AOC (extended All Outlet Combined) including convenience stores to summarize multi-channel markets and aggregate all national cross-outlet market data, and includes certain retailers (such as Whole Foods Market) that other providers do not.
Total alcohol beverage dollar sales declined while making a slight improvement from past weeks (-3.1% 2W/ -3.5% 4W). Volume trends remained under pressure (-5% 2W/ -5.4% 4W), while pricing stayed relatively flat (+2% 2W/ +2.1% 4W). Despite ready-to-drink beverages showing growth in the period, sales velocity for major brands continue to cool.
Promotional activity remains subdued across the industry, with the percentage of alcohol sales sold on promotion in the latest two weeks (22.9%) well below 2019 levels (27.1%), with hard seltzers (21.4%) and FMBs (17.3%) seeing steep year-over-year declines in promotional support.
Category Highlights
- RTDs: One of the few bright spots, spirits-based RTDs are still showing growth (+15.8% 2W/ +14.3% 4W), while wine-based RTDs are on the rise too (+33% 2W/ +32.8% 4W).
- Cider: Cider was another positive, sales rose 3.9% in the two-week period (+2.1% 4W), driven by +2.5% volume growth.
- Spirits: The mother spirits are still experiencing flat to modest growth (-0.4% 2W/ -0.6% 4W). Volumes rose 2.4%, though average prices declined 2.7%.
- FMBs: Sales fell -6.8% in the two-week period (-7.4% 4W). Twisted Tea declined 9.1% but saw share gains, while Simply Spiked continued to contract, down 37.6% (-37.1% 4W). Overall, Boston Beer’s FMB portfolio dropped -7.4% (-7.6% 4W).
- Hard Seltzer: Continuing to lose steam, hard seltzer sales were down 8.2% ( -9.4% 4W), with Truly falling -17.4% and continuing to lose share.
- Beer: Dollar sales fell 3.7% in the latest two weeks (-4.2% 4W), driven by -5.3% volume declines, partially offset by +1.4% pricing.
Growth Cooling On The Shelf For Major RTD Brands
As the category matures, major RTD brands are seeing a velocity slowdown. High Noon is still the category leader (25.2% of spirit-based RTD sales) but sales are down (-6.6% 2W/ -8.4% 4W) and velocity is dropping (-16.9% 2W/ -6.2% 52W). Cutwater follows with 9.3% of share, and sales still in the positive but declining (14.8% 2W /17.7% 4W) and efficiency on the shelf also slightly slipping (velocity -6% 2W/ -5% 4W).
Jack Daniel’s RTD shows declines (+6.3% 2W/ +11.1% 4W) with distribution holding steady (46% 2W/4W) and sales velocity slowing (-15.7% 2W/ -12.7% 4W). Meanwhile White Claw Spirits Cocktails and Truly Cocktail, which have never been able to translate brand recognition from hard seltzer into strong RTD cocktail traction, saw sales declines at -83.7%, and -93.1% respectively in the two-weeks.
As for wine-based RTDs, BuzzBallz is still leading the pack (+78.2% 2W), with Big Sipz second (+66.9% 2W) and Beatbox following (+46.5% 2W).
Spiked Ice Tea War
The independent (and original) vodka-spiked ice tea, Surfside is still slightly ahead in distribution (38% ACV) of its Boston Beer competitor, Sun Cruiser (35%) in the last two-week period. Sales velocity is where we see the larger gap, with Surfside down -19.2% versus Sun Cruiser at -38.2%. While pricing is slightly higher for Surfside, its performance is more stable.