All-channel dollar sales of non-alcoholic beverages were up nearly 10% over the past two weeks as elevated growth across categories continues to offset broad deceleration on a one-year basis, according to the latest analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
Sales rose 9.9% during the two-week period ending January 15 (+24.7% on a two-year stack basis), compared to +13.3% for the four week period and +13.7% for the 12-weeks. Over the 52-week period, sales growth was up 11.3%.
With the exception of CSDs and bottled water, overall volume growth decelerated as well. Goldman analysts noted that, overall, pricing growth still “remains a significant driver of sales growth (particularly in key categories such as CSDs & sports drinks where price growth is up +DD)” thanks to increased manufacturing costs and lower promos.
How Did Each Category Perform?
CSDs: Dollar sales continued to decelerate during the two-week period, growing just 8.4% compared to +11.7% and +12% in the four-week and 12-week periods, respectively. Volume declines picked up speed, falling 3.7% over the two weeks, while pricing was up 12.5%. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) reported the largest sales gains (+13%) during the window, outpacing rivals Coca-Cola (+10.2%) and PepsiCo (+2.6%), and was also the only company to register an increase in volume (+1.7%). The category is up +7.5% over the 52-week period, and +18.8% on a two-year stack basis.
KDP has also emerged as a growth leader in low calorie CSDs, according to Nielsen data. The company reported dollar sales rose 25.4% (+21.3% for the 52-weeks) in the segment, along with +11.9% volume growth and +12.1% increase in pricing.
Sports Drinks: Pricing continued to climb at a much faster rate than in other categories, rising 15.7% in the two week period and +12.9% over the the 52-weeks. Meanwhile, both Pepsi (+16.8%) and Coca-Cola (+28.3%) have seen dollar sales decelerate over the two weeks, though they are still outpacing growth over the past year.
Energy Drinks: The category’s dollar sales rose 6% in the two-weeks, compared to a +15% climb in the 52-week period, while average pricing increased 3.9% in the two-week period. Monster Energy’s dollar sales increased just 1.8% and Red Bull rose 5.4%, while Bang saw a decline of -4.8%. PepsiCo’s portfolio (Rockstar and MTN Dew) also fell 2.3%.
Meanwhile, CELSIUS continued its steep rise, with dollar sales up 198.5% in the two-week period, while volume increased 159% and pricing jumped up 15.3%. As well, the data showed dollar sales data for Molson Coors Beverage Company’s Zoa, reporting about $20.9 million in sales in the 52-week period.
Bottled Water: Bottled water dollar sales decelerated slightly during the two-weeks at +14.1% compared to +18.6% for the four-weeks. Volume in the period rose 4.5% and average pricing jumped up 9.2%. Coke’s sales rose +9.4% in the period while PepsiCo was up 17.3% and KDP increased 12.1%.
Tea: Ready-to-drink tea sales grew 2.8%, decelerating from +5.3% growth in the four-week period and +5.7% in the 12-weeks. Milo’s Tea Company once again leads growth (+55.9%) while leading companies such as PepsiCo/Lipton (sales flat for the two-weeks) and Coke (-13.9%) reported more muted to negative dollar sales. AriZona, meanwhile, increased sales by 3.3% in spite of -3.1% declines in volume (pricing rose 6.5%).
Sparkling Flavored Water: The category was up 6.2% in the two-weeks in dollar sales, with volume declining -0.9% and average pricing rising 7.1%. Brands in the category saw consistent deceleration in dollar sales, including declines for PepsiCo’s Bubly (-0.2%), Nestle (-2.4%), and KDP (-19%). Talking Rain’s sales were up 7.3% and other brands reported positive growth as well, including National Beverage Corp.’s LaCroix (+4.5%), Coke’s AHA (+10.7%), Polar (+14.3%) and Spindrift (+33.1%).
Coffee: Coffee sales improved 11.6% in the two-weeks, a slowdown from +13.7% in the four-weeks. Volume jumped 18.% (compared to +20.7% in the four-weeks) while average pricing declined 5.5%. Starbucks sales fell -0.8% in the period, but other brands made up the difference including Coke (+55.3%), Danone (+45.7%) and Califia Farms (+21.2%).
Still Flavored Water: Dollar sales were up 15.5% as leading brands reported double digit growth including Coke (+13.8%) and PepsiCo (+25.1%). Hint increased sales by 5.4% and good2grow parent company In Zone Brands was up 83.7% in the two-weeks.