Non-Alc Beverage Sales ‘Healthy’ in Early October

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Non-alcoholic beverage sales were “healthy and broadly stable” during the two-week period ending October 18, according to the latest analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.

Overall dollar sales growth was up 3.9% in the two-weeks (+3.5% for the four-week period and +4.2% for the 12-week periods) as volume declines improved to just -0.6% (-3.8% 4-wks/-1.4% 12-wks) and average pricing rose by 4.5% (+7.2% 4-wks/+5.6% 12-wks).

Energy Stays Strong but Slows Down

The energy category reported dollar sales growth of 12% in the two-week period, decelerating slightly from 12.9% growth in the four-week period and 14.2% in the 12-week period. Volume sales remained elevated at +9.3% (+10.1% 4-wks/+11.6% 12-wks) while average pricing was even in the two- and four-week periods at +2.5% (+2.3% 12-wks).

Here’s how individual brands performed during the two-week period:

  • Monster (excluding Bang): Sales +10.6% (+10.5%/4-wks); Volume +2.8% (+3.1% 4-wks); Pricing +7.6% (+7.2% 4-wks)
  • Red Bull: Sales +6.3% (+7.9% 4-wks); Volume +5.7% (+7.4% 4-wks); Pricing +0.6% (+0.5% 4-wks)
  • Celsius: Sales +32.1% (+32.6% 4-wks); Volume +33.6% (+34.0% 4-wks); Pricing -1.1% (-1.0% 4-wks)
  • PepsiCo (not including Celsius): Sales -11.8% (-10.9% 4-wks); Volume -10.4% (-9.9% 4-wks); Pricing -1.5% (-1.0% 4-wks)
  • Nutrabolt: Sales +6.4% (+7.5% 4-wks); Volume +15.9% (+17.7% 4-wks); Pricing -8.2% (-8.7% 4-wks)
  • GHOST: Sales +19.7% (+20.6% 4-wks); Volume +18.3% (+19.5% 4-wks); Pricing +1.2% (+1.0% 4-wks)

CSDs Accelerate Slightly

Carbonated soft drinks were up 3.6% in the two-week period (+3.3% for 4-weeks) against a -1.5% volume decline (-2.3% for 4-wks) and an average price increase of +5.2% (+5.8% 4-wks).

Segmented out, low-calorie CSDs were up 10.4% in the two-weeks (+9.6% 4-wks) against +5.5% volume (+4.6% 4-wks) and +4.7% pricing (+4.8% 4-wks) while regular CSDs grew dollar sales just + 0.7% (+0.6% 4-wks), -4.7% volume (-5.6% 4-wks) and +5.7% pricing (+6.6%).

Here’s the two-week combined CSD numbers:

  • Coca-Cola: Sales +3.9% (+3.1% 4-wks); Volume +1.0% (flat 4-wks); Pricing +2.9% (+3.2% 4-wks)
  • PepsiCo: Sales +1.2% (+1.4% 4-wks); Volume -9.7% (-10.9% 4-wks); Pricing +12.1% (+13.8% 4-wks)
  • Keurig Dr Pepper: Sales +3.2% (+3.0% 4-wks); Volume -0.9% (-1.4% 4-wks); Pricing +4.1% (+4.5% 4-wks)
  • OLIPOP: Sales +27.1% (+25.5% 4-wks); Volume +33.7% (+29.5% 4-wks); Pricing -4.9% (-3.1% 4-wks)
  • Zevia: Sales +15.9% (+19.4% 4-wks); Volume +18.8% (+24.7% 4-wks); Pricing -2.5% (-4.2% 4-wks)

Bottled Water Declines Soften

Bottled water sales dropped by 1.0% (-3.9% 4-wks) as volume dropped by 0.7% (-6.3% 4-wks) and average pricing was down by 0.3% (+2.5% 4-wks).

Here’s how waters performed in the two-week period:

  • Private Label: Sales -1.9% (-5.8% 4-wks); Volume -2.3% (-6.9% 4-wks); Pricing +0.4% (+1.1% 4-wks)
  • PRIMO Brands: Sales +4.5% (-0.7% 4-wks); Volume +6.3% (-1.0% 4-wks); Pricing -1.7% (+0.4% 4-wks)
  • Coca-Cola: Sales +3.5% (+2.9% 4-wks); Volume +9.8% (+4.6% 4-wks); Pricing -5.8% (-1.6% 4-wks)
  • PepsiCo: Sales -14.0% (-15.2% 4-wks); Volume -26.4% (-29.7% 4-wks); Pricing +16.9% (+20.7% 4-wks)
  • Keurig Dr Pepper: Sales -6.9% (-6.4% 4-wks); Volume -9.1% (-8.9% 4-wks); Pricing +2.5% (+2.8% 4-wks)
  • Supplying Demand (Liquid Death): Sales -12.7% (-15.4% 4-wks); Volume -8.8% (-15.0% 4-wks); Pricing -4.2% (-0.4% 4-wks)

Sports Drinks Take a Dip

Hydration and sports drinks fell slightly with a 0.5% decline in the two-weeks (+0.3% 4-wks). Volume sales fell by 1.7% (-1.3% 4-wk) while average pricing rose 1.2% (+1.6% 4-wks).

Here’s how the brands performed in the two-weeks:

  • PepsiCo (Gatorade): Sales -2.2% (-1.4% 4-wks); Volume -4.6% (-4.0% 4-wks); Pricing +2.5% (+2.7% 4-wks)
  • Coca-Cola (PowerAde/BodyArmor): Sales +5.4% (+5.6% 4-wks); Volume +7.3% (+7.0% 4-wks); Pricing -1.7% (-1.4% 4-wks)
  • Electrolit: Sales +23.9% (+25.2% 4-wks); Volume +16.9% (+18.4% 4-wks); Pricing +6.0% (+5.7% 4-wks)
  • PRIME: Sales -51.4% (-49.7% 4-wks); Volume -47.4% (-46.2% 4-wks); Pricing -7.6% (-6.4% 4-wks)

Sparkling Water Fizzles

Sparkling water sales decelerated in the two-week period, growing 4.6% (+5.4% 4-wks) against -1.7% volume (-0.4% 4-wks) and +6.4% pricing (+5.9% 4-wks).

Here’s the brand results for the two-week period:

  • Talking Rain: Sales -0.2% (-0.1% 4-wks); Volume -6.8% (-5.0% 4-wks); Pricing +7.1% (+5.2% 4-wks)
  • Private Label: Sales -7.9% (-6.6%); Volume -12.5% (-10.9% 4-wks); Pricing +5.3% (+4.8% 4wks)
  • Nestlé: Sales +14.0% (+12.1% 4-wks); Volume +12.9% (+8.0% 4-wks); Pricing +1.0% (+3.7% 4-wks)
  • LaCroix: Sales -9.4% (-6.8% 4-wks); Volume -15.6% (-12.5% 4-wks); Pricing +7.4% (+6.5% 4-wks)
  • Polar: Sales +8.4% (+11.1% 4-wks); Volume +5.7% (+5.0% 4-wks); Pricing +0.6% (+0.5% 4-wks)
  • Spindrift: Sales +21.5% (+25.6% 4-wks); Volume +17.7% (+25.6% 4-wks); Pricing +3.3% (even 4-wks)
  • Waterloo: Sales +1.0% (+6.1% 4-wks); Volume +-3.0% (+4.2% 4-wks); Pricing +4.1% (+1.8% 4-wks)
  • Liquid Death: Sales +20.5% (+16.8% 4-wks); Volume +16.0% (+10.2% 4-wks); Pricing +3.9% (+5.9% 4-wks)

Coffee Declines with Little Change

RTD coffee sales were down 3.2% in the two-week (-3.1% 4-wks) as volume sales dropped 2.1% (-3.5% for 4-wks) and pricing declined by 1.2% (+0.4% 4-wks).

Here’s the brand breakdown:

  • Starbucks: Sales -6.0% (-5.8% 4-wks); Volume -7.1% (-6.8% 4-wks); Pricing +1.2% (+1.1% 4-wks)
  • Danone (STOK): Sales +9.0 (+6.0% 4-wks); Volume +33.4% (+19.4% 4-wks); Pricing -18.3% (-11.2% 4-wks)
  • Black Rifle: Sales -3.6% (-3.4% 4-wks); Volume -1.8% (-1.7% 4-wks); Pricing -1.8% (-1.7% 4-wks)
  • Coca-Cola: Sales -11.4% (-9.6% 4-wks); Volume -14.5% (-11.5% 4-wks); Pricing +3.7% (+2.1% 4-wks)
  • Califia Farms: Sales -6.3% (+4.5% 4-wks); Volume -9.9% (+12.8% 4-wks); Pricing -4.0% (-7.3% 4-wks)
  • Kitu Life: Sales -21.7% (-21.2% 4-wks); Volume -17.6% (-15.9% 4-wks); Pricing -5.0% (-6.3% 4-wks)

Coconut Water Remains Elevated

Coconut water sales were up double digits in the two-week period at +12.4% (+12.8% 4-wks) with volume up by 4.8% (+4.4% 4-wks) and average pricing growing by 7.2% (+8.0% 4-wks).

Here’s how the individual brands did:

  • Vita Coco: Sales +14.3% (+16.2% 4-wks); Volume +7.5% (+8.0% 4-wks); Pricing +6.3% (+7.6% 4-wks)
  • Harmless Harvest: Sales +14.2% (+7.9% 4-wks); Volume +9.6% (-1.2% 4-wks); Pricing +4.2% (+9.3% 4-wks)
  • Goya Foods: Sales +3.8% (+3.9% 4-wks); Volume -7.7% (-8.1% 4-wks); Pricing +12.5% (+13.1% 4-wks)
  • C20 Pure Coconut Water: Sales +22.1% (+25.1% 4-wks); Volume +22.9% (+24.7% 4-wks); Pricing -0.7% (+0.3% 4-wks)