The latest data set from NIQ shows total BevAlc sales accelerated their decline in the two-week period ending June 1, reflecting faster volume drops and slightly softer pricing growth, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
NIQ uses US x AOC (extended All Outlet Combined) including convenience stores to summarize multi-channel markets and aggregate all national cross-outlet market data, and includes certain retailers (such as Whole Foods Market) that other providers do not.
Here’s the overview:
- Dollar sales recorded a -1.6% drop for the two weeks ending June 1, down from a -1.4% decrease in the four-weeks and a marginal -0.2% decline in the 12-week period.
- Volume declines were down to -3.6% in the two-weeks, compared to -3.5% in the four weeks and -2.7% in the 12-weeks.
- Pricing growth softened slightly, increasing by +2.1% in the recent two weeks compared to +2.2% in the four weeks and +2.6% in the 12-weeks.
- The results for both the recent and prior year two-week periods include the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
- From a category standpoint, volume deteriorated nearly across the board for wine, spirits, FMB, hard seltzer and cider, but with beer holding relatively steady, down -3.5% for two-weeks (vs -3.6% and -2.6% for four-weeks and 12-weeks).
Ready-to-Drink Cocktails
Both spirit-based and wine-based RTDs saw a slowdown in sales growth. Spirit-based RTDs increased by +8.3% in the two-weeks, down from +10.5% in the four-weeks and +31% in the 52-weeks. Wine-based RTDs grew by +20.2%, a decrease from +22.6% in the four weeks and +25.4% in the 52-weeks.
High Noon continued to excel with a +13.7% increase in the two-weeks, although cooled from +16.4% in the four-weeks and +39.1% in the 52-weeks. Volume growth nearly mirrored sales at +13.2% with about flat average pricing.
Still vying for the second spot, Cutwater saw sales rise +21.6%, with volumes up +18.1% and pricing up +3%. Nutl also posted high growth (+41.6%) but slowed versus +120% in the 52-week period.
On the other hand, Jack Daniels RTDs continues to decelerate, dropping by -32.2% in the two-weeks, a dip from -30.1% in the four-weeks; down from +89.7% in the 52-weeks.
Dogfish Head Cocktails (-19.5%), Truly (-16.47%), and White Claw Spirits Cocktails (-47.4%) posted losses.
With the hard tea race heating up, Stateside’s vodka-based Surfside lemonade and hard teas and Boston Beer’s new vodka-based iced tea Sun Cruiser held a 0.7% and 0.5% share of spirits-based RTDs, respectively, in the latest 2-week data, with ACVs of 5% and 4% respectively.
Flavored Malt Beverages
FMB sales growth decelerated to +2.1% in the two weeks, from +2.4% in the four weeks and +13% in the 52-weeks. Volumes were up by +0.5% (versus +0.8% in the four-weeks) and average pricing was steady at +1.6%.
Hard Tea showed improvement with sales slightly up +18.7%, versus +18.1% in the four-weeks and +31.7% in the 52-weeks, driven by Twisted Tea which saw a +9.8% increase in the two-weeks.
Hard Lemonade continues to struggle with a -15.9% drop, slightly down from -14.1% in the four-weeks and -3.1% in the 52-weeks, exacerbated by Simply Spiked facing a steep decline of -36.4% in the two-weeks.
Hard Soda sales showed volatility, up +7.4% in the two-weeks, versus -4.3% in the four-weeks and +34.4% in the 52-weeks. Hard MTN Dew faced a continued downturn as the brand transitioned to Boston Beer’s distribution from Pepsi’s Blue Cloud, with sales decreasing by -43.0% in the two weeks, versus -46.2% in the four-weeks and -7.8% in the 52-weeks.
Hard Seltzer
Hard seltzer continues to face significant challenges, with sales falling -11.7% in the two weeks, a slight worsening from -11.3% in the four weeks and +14.1% in the 52-weeks. Volumes were down -15.1% (-14.4% for four-weeks and -17.6% for 52-weeks), while average pricing remained relatively flat at +3.9%.
Truly sales declines were steady -21.8% in the two-weeks, from -22.3% in the four-weeks and -25.1% in the 52-weeks. Frontrunner White Claw saw sales stay steady at +1.9% in the two-week period versus +1.8% in the four-weeks and +1.6% in the 52-weeks. Truly (-21.8%) Topo Chico Hard Cider (-26.6%) and Lone River Ranch Water (-21.4%) all saw double-digit losses. On the other hand, Happy Dad Seltzer (+86.4%) and Model Ranch Water (+23.6%) posted gains.