The latest data set from NIQ showed a modest improvement in sales declines for total BevAlc in the two-week period before September 7, which included a tepid labor day weekend, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
NIQ uses US x AOC (extended All Outlet Combined) including convenience stores to summarize multi-channel markets and aggregate all national cross-outlet market data, and includes certain retailers (such as Whole Foods Market) that other providers do not.
Here’s the overview:
- Value declines improved slightly at 1.9% for the two-week period, an improvement over -2.4% in the four-week period and -1.6% in the 12-weeks.
- Volume declines also eased, down 4.3% versus -4.7% in the four-weeks and -3.7% in the 12-weeks up against stronger pricing growth, up 2.5% in the two-weeks compared to 2.4% and 2.2% in the four and 12-weeks respectively.
- Performance improved for beer, spirits, hard seltzer and cider, while deteriorating slightly for wine.
Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Cocktails
Spirit-based RTD sales growth was positive, recording a 13.3% increase, up from 12.4% in the preceding four-weeks, versus 13.1% in the 12-weeks, and 19.9% in the 52 weeks. Wine-based RTD sales were also consistent, up 21.6% in the two-week period versus 30.6% in the 52-weeks.
Gallo-owned High Noon still leads, up 8.3% in the two-weeks, though this was a slight decrease from 8.9% in the prior four-weeks and a drop from 25.5% in the 52-weeks. Volume was up 8.5% in the two weeks with pricing nearly flat at -0.2%. Dollar share is contracting for the brand on both a sequential and year-over-year basis.
Second-place in sales from High Noon is Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Cutwater, which saw sales rise a bit to 16.9%, with volumes up 16% and pricing up 0.8%. A-B-owned Nütrl also posted high growth (+30%) but slowed versus 69.6% in the 52-week period.
The spirits-based hard tea race is heating up: Stateside Vodka-owned Surfside and Boston Beer-owned Sun Cruiser held a 1.6% and 1.7% share respectively in the latest two-week data, with ACVs of 8% and 16%.
Jack Daniels RTDs continued to face challenges, with sales down by 11.1% in the two-week period, an improvement over -13.8% in the four-weeks and a contrast from +23% growth in the 52-weeks.
Boston Beer’s Dogfish Head Cocktails (-28.1%) and Truly (-45.2%), and Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw Spirits Cocktails (-46.1%) posted losses.
Flavored Malt Beverages
FMB sales growth was up 0.4% in the two-weeks, compared to -0.2% four-week versus +8% in the 52-weeks. Volume was down 1.5% (versus -2.1% in the four-weeks) and average pricing was steady at 2%.
Hard tea rose slightly to 11% in the two-weeks versus 10.7% in the four weeks, and 23.2% in the 52-weeks, led by Boston Beer-owned Twisted Tea (5.2% in the two weeks up from 4.6% in the four.)
Hard Lemonade continued to struggle, but sales were relatively steady recently, down 14.2% in the two-week period from -14.9% in the four-week period and a decline of 7.8% over the 52-weeks. Molson Coors’ Simply Spiked continued to decline with a 38.3% drop over the two weeks versus -19.4% in the 52-weeks.
Hard Soda was down 7.7% in the two-week period, falling from -6.1% in the four-weeks; the segment is up 19.9% for the 52-weeks. Boston Beer-owned Hard MTN Dew sales were down 10.9% in the two weeks, performing better than the -15.3% in the 12-weeks, as the brand transitions out of Pepsi’s Blue Cloud distribution system.
Hard Seltzer
Hard seltzer continues to struggle with sales declining by 10.2%, a slight improvement from -11% in the previous four weeks and -11.5% in the 52-weeks. Volumes were down 13% (-13.8% for four-weeks and -14.4% for 52-weeks), while average pricing remained relatively flat at 3.2%.
Frontrunner White Claw saw sales decelerate slightly to 0.6% in the two-week period versus -0.3% in the four-weeks and +2% in the 52-weeks. Truly (-24%) Molson Coors’ Topo Chico Hard Seltzer (-18.9%) and Vizzy (-32%) and Diageo’s Lone River Ranch Water (-20.8%) all saw double-digit losses. Constellation Brands’ Modelo Ranch Water faced a dip from 3.9% in the 52-weeks to -4.5% in the two.
Happy Dad Seltzer (+55.2%) was the only brand to post gains.