Non-alcoholic beverage sales saw mixed year-over-year results for the period ending March 27 as the industry passes the one-year anniversary of COVID-induced pantry loading, according to an analysis of Nielsen data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
All channel dollar sales were up 3.9% year-over-year for the two-week period, compared to just 0.6% growth for the four-week period, 8.2% for the 12-weeks and 9.3% in the 52-weeks.
Leading beverage conglomerates, however, saw sharp declines in sales — reflecting the difficulty matching last year’s rush on groceries — with PepsiCo total company sales down 12.2% in the two-weeks (compared to -9.7% in the four-weeks, up 2.4% in the 12-weeks and up 7.1% for 52-weeks). The Coca-Cola Company saw sales slide 4.2% in the two-weeks (-3.6% in the four-weeks, up 6.6% for 12-weeks and up 9% for 52-weeks). Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) sales dropped 5.7% in the two weeks (-3.2% for the four-weeks, up 9.1% for 12-weeks and 13.1% growth for 52-weeks).
Carbonated soft drinks struggled, as the category saw sales fall by 1.8% to $30.9 billion in the two-weeks, compared to 0.9% growth for the four-weeks, 9.6% for 12-weeks and 11.5% for 52-weeks. Coke reported CSD sales down 2.4% in the two-weeks (versus -0.5% in four-weeks and up 8.5% in 12-weeks and 10.4% in 52-weeks). KDP also reported a decline of 2.7% in the two weeks (up 1.2% in the four-week period, 11.9% for 12-weeks and 16.2% for 52-weeks). Pepsi, however, reported an increase in sales, up 1.7% year-over-year for the two week period (also up 3.8% for four-weeks, 10.6% for 12-weeks and 10.1% for 52-weeks).
Regular CSDs, with dollar sales down 1.1% and volume falling 12.1% in the two-week period, fared slightly better than diet CSDs which saw dollar sales dip 3.5% and volume sales slide 10.5% in the same period.
Overcoming the COVID growth dip, the energy drink category saw a strong dollar sales increase of 30.6% in the two-week period to $14.6 billion, compared to 20.3% growth in the four-weeks, 15% in the 12-weeks and 10.1% in the 52-weeks. Volume sales grew 30.3% in the two-weeks.
Monster Energy Company dollar sales were up 26.5% in the two-weeks (compared to 8% in the 52-weeks) to $5.8 billion, with volume growing 23.1%.
“We expect [Monster’s] growth (along with the Energy Drink category) to remain elevated in the coming weeks as the category laps the initial effects of last year’s Covid-related lockdowns,” the report stated.
Despite the growth, Monster has seen its market share erode as Red Bull’s presence in the market rises. Red Bull reported 42% dollar sales growth in the two-weeks (compared to 17.9% in the 52-weeks) to $5.3 billion, with volume up 42.3%. While its market share remained relatively flat, performance energy brand Bang also saw a sharp return to growth, up 31.3% in the two-weeks to $1.1 billion, compared to -2.4% in the 52-week period. Volume for Bang increased 34.7%. However, PepsiCo (Rockstar and MTN Dew) dollar sales fell 11% in the two-weeks and volume was down 23%. Fitness energy brand CELSIUS grew 181.3% to $109.4 million, however many of that brand’s sales are in untracked channels including gyms and online.
Bottled water dollar sales fell 12.5% in the two-week period and volume was down 18.6%. Private label products, which account for $3.9 billion in sales, fell 19.2% in the period. Nestlé dropped 7.3% to $3.2 billion, Coke dropped 7.9% and PepsiCo slid 18.9%.
Sports drinks, however, saw a 10.1% jump in dollar sales against a volume drop of 2.5% in the two-week period. PepsiCo (Gatorade) reported a 6.4% dollar sales jump to $5.1 billion, while Coke (Powerade) dollar sales fell 14% and volume declined 20.4%. BODYARMOR grew 56.6% in the two weeks to $1.06 billion and volume was up 55.7%.
Ready-to-drink tea grew dollar sales 4.3% in the two-week period to $4.8 billion, led by PepsiCo and Lipton which reported 8.5% sales growth to $1.7 billion. Dollar sales for Coke were up 9.8% to $841.4 million. RTD coffee, meanwhile, was up a robust 35.9% to $3.1 billion. The category was led by PepsiCo and Starbucks’ North American Coffee Partnership which saw dollar sales jump 31.3% to $2.3 billion. Danone sales were up 21.7% to $259.1 million while Coke grew 118.3% to $201.4 million. Califia Farms, however, reported a 9.7% decline to $45.9 million.
Sparkling flavored water fell 2.1% in the two-weeks to $3.3 billion, a sharp contrast to 20% growth in the 52-weeks. Talking Rain led the category, up 6% to $717.9 million in the period. LaCroix maker National Beverage Corp saw sales drop 14.1% to $553.7 million (but up 20.3% in the 52-weeks). PepsiCo (Bubly) fell 0.9%, Nestlé dropped 15.7%, and Coke (AHA) grew just 0.5% (compared to 67.6% growth in the 52-weeks). Spindrift posted a 51.9% dollar sales jump to $80.6 billion, compared to 72.7% in the 52-weeks. The flavored still water category was up 14.9% in the two-week period to $1.6 billion.