Non-alcoholic beverages were feeling the love in the lead up to Valentine’s Day, as sales accelerated across almost all categories for the two-week period ending on February 12, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
Total non-alc drink sales increased 13.8% over the period, up from +12.2% in the four weeks and back to around the +14% growth seen during the 12-week period. The growth has been underpinned by rising prices and weaker promo activity.
The correlation between price hikes and volume drops is playing out in soft drinks, where 13.8% growth in average pricing is helping to offset -1.9% drop in volume. Led by Keurig Dr Pepper (+14%) and Axis Coporativo S.A. (+22.7%), sales of carbonated beverages rose 11.6% during the two-week period. KDP also performed well individually in regular (+10.1%) and diet (+27.7%) during the period. Low calorie CSDs saw the biggest overall increase in price (+14.2%), but this time with volume only dropping by .4%. Overall dollar sales in low calorie CSDs was up 14.6%.
Bottled water saw a 10% increase in average price during the two-week window, above the 52-week mark of +7.7%. Volume in the category also trended upward at +8.4% over the two-week period, with dollar sales accelerating to +19.5% growth. Outside of private label (+21%), PepsiCo (+19.9%) and Kraft Heinz (+22.7%) put up the biggest growth numbers in dollar sales, though the latter also saw a 20% price hike.
Still flavored water performed similarly, with dollar sales rising 19.9% during the two-week period against an average price increase of +16.4%. PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, KRP, Hint and The Kraft Heinz Company all saw double-digit sales growth and positive volumes, with Coca-Cola (+15.5%) and Kraft Heinz (+20%) reporting the largest increases in average price.
Sports drinks continued to pick up momentum, with total category sales rising 24.3% during the two-week period. Both PepsiCo and Coca-Cola — driven by Gatorade and Powerade/BodyArmor, respectively — continue to dominate, but each has seen average prices linger in the low double-digits for weeks. For PepsiCo, volume rose 4.5% against a 15.4% price increase over the two weeks, while Coca-Cola reported gains in volume (+6.2%) and price (+17.2%).
Spindrift, which debuted a new Blood Orange flavor this week, was the pacesetter in sparkling flavored water, growing dollar sales 45.6% against a +46.4% volume increase and -0.5% drop in average price over the two-week period. Meanwhile, KDP sales plummeted -26.3%, with volume down 34.3%. PepsiCo also saw a dip in sales (-3.2%) during the period, while Talking Rain (+8.6%) and Coca-Cola (+4.1%) made strides forward. National Beverage Corp. reported a 3.2% increase in dollar sales, against a -7.9% decrease in volume and a 12% rise in average price.
In coffee, Pepsi’s North American Coffee Partnership with Starbucks continued to bounce back, going from 0.8% sales growth in the 12-week period to +3.1% in the two-weeks. Those numbers were dwarfed by big gains from Danone North America (+40.7% dollar sales, +33.1% volume against a +5.7% price increase), and contrasted against Coca-Cola’s disappointing return of -11.3% dollars sales, an abrupt reversal from +44.1% growth in the 12-week period. Califia Farms, meanwhile, increased sales 28.7% year-over-year during the two-week window and boosted volume by 36.4% against an average price decrease of -5.6%.
Finally, energy drinks picked up speed during the two-week window, growing 13.4% against +7.4% uptick in volume and a 5.5% rise in average pricing. Along with Celsius’ torrential pace — +233% in dollar sales during the two-weeks, against +200% volume growth and +10.8% pricing — Red Bull saw solid volume gains of +10.6% help push sales to +12.6%, with relatively minor price increase (+1.8%) compared to rivals like Monster (+4.7%) and PepsiCo (+9.3%). On a 2-year stack basis, energy category dollar sales were +24.5% year-over-year for the two weeks.