NielsenIQ: Beverage Sales Remain Strong Despite Deceleration Across Categories

Though overall beverage sales remained strong, non-alcoholic drinks decelerated across nearly all categories in the two-week period ending March 12, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.

According to the report, lower volume sales brought down dollar sales growth in the period. Overall dollar sales grew 11.7% in the two-weeks, compared to 13.3% growth in the four-week period and +12.1% in the 52-weeks. Goldman noted that “consumer elasticities are increasing” in response to higher prices; average pricing was up significantly in the period amid continued inflationary pressures. On a two-year stack basis, dollar sales were up 9.5% in the two-week period, compared to +16.6% for the four-weeks.

Carbonated soft drink sales were up 12.1% in the two-week period, decelerating from +13.5% growth in the four-week period, but outpacing +7.9% growth in the 52-weeks. Volume sales fell -1.1% in the two-weeks (compared to +1.1% for four-weeks) while pricing spiked +13.2%. The Coca-Cola Company reported +16.9% dollar sales growth in the two-weeks, supported by +2% to volume and +14.7% in average pricing. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) dollar sales were up +11.8% (volume -0.3% and pricing +12.1%), while PepsiCo saw sales rise +6.2% (-5.2% to volume and +12.1% to pricing).

Energy drink sales were up +12.3% in the two-weeks, versus +15.1% for four-weeks and +15.4% for 52-weeks. Volume sales rose +7.5% while average pricing increased +4.5%. Monster Energy posted +9.3% dollar sales growth in the two-weeks (+5.4% for volume and +3.6% to pricing) and Red Bull was up 9.8% in sales while volume climbed +8.4% and pricing was increased just +1.3%. PepsiCo’s efforts to turn around its energy portfolio of Rockstar and MTN Dew brands have also continued to show positive results, with sales up +3.9% in the period (volume, however, fell -4% while pricing was up +8.2%).

Meanwhile, sales of Bang dropped -9.5%, compared to -5.7% in the four-week period and +10% growth for 52-weeks. The fitness energy brand saw volume decline -10.1% while average pricing rose just +0.7%. CELSIUS maintained its triple-digit momentum, but declined slightly, up +208% in the two-weeks compared to +220.4% for four-weeks. Volume sales were up 198.8% in the period and pricing increased +6.9%.

Bottled water sales were up +14.9%, accelerating slightly from +13.8% growth in the four-week period. Volume for the category was up 5.2% and average pricing jumped +9.2%. Private label sales led category growth (+22.1%), while Blue Triton Brands saw sales increased +12.5%. Other companies in the category saw strong growth as well, including Coke (+6.1%), PepsiCo (+13%), KDP (+10.4%), Danone (+11.2%) and Niagara Bottling (+5.7%).

Sports drinks sales decelerated, growing +13.7% in the two-weeks versus +17.7% for four-weeks and +19.3% for 52-weeks. Volumes declined, down -2.5% but were offset by +16.7% in pricing. PepsiCo (Gatorade) saw sales climb +10.9% and Coke (BodyArmor and Powerade) was up +12.4%.

Ready-to-drink tea drink sales were up 4.3% in the period, with volume sales falling -2.1% and pricing growing +6.6%. Pepsi/Lipton sales fell -0.7% and Coke declined -5.2%, while AriZona reported +2.4% sales growth.

Sparkling flavored water sales were up +3.7% for the two-weeks, with -3.3% volume sales offset by +7.3% pricing increases. Talking Rain (+4.4%), National Beverage Corp. (+5.6%), Polar (+10.8%) and Spindrift (+36.4%) saw solid sales growth while PepsiCo (=14.9%) and Coke (-1.9%) faced declines.

RTD coffee was up +5.1% in the period, versus +7.5% in the four-weeks and +16.8% for 52-weeks. Volume was up +3.4% and pricing rose just +1.7%. Sales for category leader Starbucks (through its North American Coffee Partnership joint venture with PepsiCo) dropped -2% with volume falling -7.8% against a +6.3% average price rise. Coke also reported declines in the category, with sales down -16.3%. However, Danone North America (STOK) accelerated sales +49.5% (compared to +48.4% for four-weeks) and Califia Farms was up +17.8%.

Still flavored water sales rose +14.8%, while volume dropped -0.3% and pricing was up +15.1%. Coke saw sales rise +9.6% and PepsiCo saw +28.3% growth. Hint reported a +5.7% increase in sales and In Zone Brands (good2grow) was up 44.5%.