Non-alcoholic beverage sales slowed but remained positive, up 11.8% year-over-year, in the two-week period ending December 17, 2022, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research. Volume declines picked up pace, down 1.6% in the two-weeks compared to 1% in the four-week period.
Despite slowing sales and volume momentum, analysts reported that average pricing growth remained “robust and largely stable,” up 13.3% driven by double digit growth in key categories including CSDs, energy drinks, sport drinks and bottled water.
Non-alc beverage leaders produced mixed results during the period with Monster and PepsiCo reporting relatively flat sales growth while Coca Cola and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) saw sales decelerate sequentially. On a three-year stack basis total dollar sales in the non-alc category accelerated, increasing 38.1% during the two weeks compared to 37.5% growth for the four-weeks. Growth on a three-year basis was driven by the same key categories driving pricing growth during the two-weeks.
CSDs
While decelerating into low double-digit territory, the CSD category logged a 12.9% increase in sales alongside weak volumes during the two-weeks. On a three-year stack basis during the same period, the category’s sales were largely unchanged.
Low-calorie CSDs saw only modest deceleration during the period, with sales growth change within 1.2% during the two weeks compared to the upwards of 2% variability reported in the regular CSD set. Coca Cola continues to lead both regular and low cal CSDs in terms of total dollar sales, followed by PepsiCo and then KDP.
Energy Drinks
The energy drink category saw a modest deceleration but sales growth remained relatively stable, up 9.7% (+10.1% during the four-weeks). Sales fluctuated within the positive, 10% range during the 12- and 52-week periods.
Volume continued to slightly decelerate, declining 0.4% in the two-weeks (-0.1% during the four-weeks) while pricing growth remained stable year-over-year, up 10.2% in the two-weeks. On a three-year stack basis, the category saw modest growth with sales increasing 37.4% for 2-weeks versus a 36.7% rise in the four-weeks.
Category leaders Monster and Red Bull kept pace with the category’s trajectory, reporting sales increases of 9.2% and 7.6%, respectively – a slight deceleration from their growth during the four-week period. Bang sales continued to head south, falling 45.3% in the period. Celsius and Ghost also saw similar results to the overall category, reporting slightly decelerated sales growth in the two-weeks with 129.3% and 1286% increases, respectively.
Bottled Water
Sales growth was relatively unchanged but decelerated slightly, up 13.4% (+13.8% at four-weeks). Volume declined 0.4%, continuing the deceleration seen across the four, 12- and 52-week periods. Pricing was “strong/stable,” up 13.9% compared to 14.1% at four-weeks and 12.8% at 52-weeks.
Private label brands continue to own the category, reporting 24.5% sales growth followed by Blue Triton which saw a 13.8% increase. All key players in the category saw decelerating, but still positive growth including Coca Cola (+6.4%), PepsiCo (+5%) and KDP (+6.2%).
Sports Drinks
Dollar sales continued to accelerate in the category, up 16.7% in the two-weeks (+15.9% at four-weeks and +12.6% at 52-weeks). PepsiCo (Gatorade) led the category in terms of sales, reporting 23.7% growth during the two-weeks. Coca Cola (BodyArmor and Powerade) saw sales fall further, down 6.1% compared to the 4.8% drop during the four-weeks and 6.2% decline at 12-weeks.
RTD Tea
The category overall saw sales modestly decelerate during the period, up 8.1% compared to 9.1% during the four-weeks. Leading brands Lipton (+4.7%), Coca Cola (+14.7%), AriZona (+10.3%) and Milo’s Tea Company (+32%) saw similar sales patterns in addition to sequential volume declines. Overall category volume growth was down 3.1%.
Sparkling Flavored Water
Sparkling flavored water sales were up 4.8% with volumes dropping 6% despite pricing growth remaining positive and relatively stable at 11.5% during the two-weeks (compared to 11% at four-weeks). Talking Rain led in terms of total dollar sales, despite a moderate deceleration to 1.8% in the period. Elsewhere, the category saw mixed results with LaCroix posting 2.5% growth while PepsiCo (+0.9%), Polar (+13.6%), Spindrift (+50%) logged sales increases despite decelerating sales. Coke (-26.7%), Nestle (-27.8%), KDP (-0.3%) all saw sales decelerate and decline.
RTD Coffee
Coffee sales and pricing growth remained stable, increasing 9.2% and 1.1% in the two-weeks, respectively, while volume increased to 8%. Category leaders Starbucks/Pepsi and Danone both saw sales slow, but posted increases of 12.6% and 20%, respectively. Coca Cola saw a 28.7% decline in sales in addition to falling volume and unchanged pricing in the period. Califia Farms sales grew 21.9% with volume up 11.7% as pricing remained stable.
Still Flavored Water
Total dollar sales of still flavored water continued to decelerate with 3.4% growth, 12.9% volume declines and relatively unchanged pricing. Kraft-Heinz saw the largest rebound, with sales increasing 13.6% in the period compared to 2.2% declines in the four-weeks. Coke (+4.6%), PepsiCo (+10.2%), and good2grow (6.1%) also saw positive sales while Hint (-2.6%) and private label brands (-10.9%) reported decreases.