Stronger volumes and softer pricing growth helped modestly accelerate non-alcoholic beverage growth during the two-week period ended July 26, according to Goldman Sachs’ latest analysis of NielsenIQ data (including xAOC + Convenience and Amazon).
Overall dollar sales climbed 5.4% during the period (+4.9% 4-weeks/+4% 12-weeks) as pricing rose 3.6% (+4.2% 4-weeks) and volume increased 1.8% (+0.7% 4-weeks/-0.2% 12-weeks).
Energy Decelerates Sequentially
Energy drink sales growth slowed but remained “very strong” in the two-week period, with dollar sales rising 14.2% (+15.1%/4-wks and 12-wks). However, modestly 3.5% pricing growth (+2.2% 4-wks and 12-wks) was more than offset by softer volume growth of 10.3% (+12.7%/4-wks and 12-wks). Here’s how individual brands performed during the two-week period:
Red Bull: Sales +13.3% (+13.8% 4-wks); Volume +13.5% (+14.2% 4-wks); Pricing -0.2% (-0.4% 4-wks)
Monster (excluding Bang): Sales +10% (+10.2%/4-wks); Volume +0.8% (+2.1% 4-wks); Pricing +9.2% (+8% 4-wks)
PepsiCo (not including Celsius): Sales -14.5% (-13.4% 4-wks); Volume -14.5% (-12.5% 4-wks); Pricing -0.1% (-1.1% 4-wks)
Celsius: Sales +37.4% (+41.2% 4-wks); Volume +23.5% (+31.6% 4-wks); Pricing +11.2% (+7.3% 4-wks)
Nutrabolt: Sales +11.7% (+14.6% 4-wks); Volume +73.5% (+80% 4-wks); Pricing -35.6% (-36.3% 4-wks)
GHOST: Sales +15.2% (+15.1% 4-wks); Volume +12.7% (+13.5% 4-wks); Pricing +2.2% (+1.4% 4-wks)
CSD Sales Go Flat
Overall carbonated soft drink sales were relatively flat sequentially, up 4.7% in the two-week period (+4.8% 4-wks). Volume (+0.8%) saw a modest sequential decline (+1% 4-wks) while pricing notched up 3.9% (3.7% 4-wks). Low-calorie CSDs fared better, though they also faced a sequential decline, with volume rising 7% (+8% 4-wks) and sales growing 11.8% (12.5% 4-wks). Let’s review the two-week numbers:
Coca-Cola: Sales +5.6% (5.7% 4-wks); Volume +0.9% (+1.2% 4-wks); Pricing +4.7% (+4.5% 4-wks)
PepsiCo: Sales +1.7% (+2.1% 4-wks); Volume -1.7% (-0.9% 4-wks); Pricing +3.4% (+3% 4-wks)
Keurig Dr Pepper: Sales +4.5% (+4.4% 4-wks); Volume +0.5% (+0.6% 4-wks); Pricing +4% (3.8% 4-wks)
OLIPOP: Sales +27.6% (23.3% 4-wks); Volume +25.2% (+18.9% 4-wks); Pricing +1.9% (+3.6% 4-wks)
Sports Drinks Score
It may be too early to call to call it a full-fledged comeback, but the sports drink category is back on an upward trajectory. In the two-week period, sales increased 2.7% (-0.7% 4-wks) and volumes ticked up 1.3% (-2.2% 4-wks) while pricing remained relatively flat at 1.4% (+1.5% 4-wks). Here’s how the category performed over the two-week period:
PepsiCo (Gatorade): Sales +0.8% (-2.6% 4-wks); Volume -1.1% (-4.7% 4-wks); Pricing +1.9% (+2.2% 4-wks)
Coca-Cola (PowerAde/BodyArmor): Sales +9.4% (+6.3% 4-wks); Volume +9.3% (+5.9% 4-wks); Pricing +0.1% (+0.3% 4-wks)
Electrolit: Sales +33.6% (+26.4% 4-wks); Volume +32.5% (+24.7% 4-wks); Pricing +0.9% (+1.3% 4-wks)
PRIME: Sales -53.4% (-53.8% 4-wks); Volume -54.1% (-53.9% 4-wks); Pricing +1.5% (+0.3% 4-wks)
Bottled Water Rides the Wave
Category sales trends in the two-week period accelerated sequentially to +1.6% (+0.0% 4-wks), fueled by stronger volumes (2.3% 2-wks/0.3% 4-wks) in conjunction with slightly weaker pricing growth (-0.7% 2-wks/-0.3% 4-wks). The two-week performance is as follows:
Private Label: Sales +2.5% (+0.6% 4-wks); Volume +3.8% (+1.8% 4-wks); Pricing -1.3% (-1.1% 4-wks)
PRIMO Brands: Sales +3.6% (+2.3% 4-wks); Volume +2.6% (+0.4% 4-wks); Pricing +1% (+1.9% 4-wks)
Hint: Sales -7.1% (-7.1% 4-wks); Volume -7.5% (-5% 4-wks); Pricing +0.4% (-2.2% 4-wks)
Keurig Dr Pepper: Sales -12.2% (-12.7% 4-wks); Volume -20.8% (-21.2% 4-wks); Pricing +10.8% (+10.8% 4-wks)
Supplying Demand (Liquid Death): Sales -13.2% (-15.8% 4-wks); Volume -18.6% (-22% 4-wks); Pricing +6.7% (+8% 4-wks)
Sparkling Water Broadly Stable
Sales growth trends were broadly stable in the category, with overall sales rising 7.4% (+7.1% 4-wks) while volume increased 2% (+2% 4-wks) and pricing notched up 5.3% (5.1% 4-wks). However, some brands performed better than others. Here are the figures for the two-week window:
Talking Rain: Sales +1.4% (+1.2% 4-wks); Volume +0.1% (+0.6% 4-wks); Pricing +1.3% (+0.6% 4-wks)
La Croix: Sales -0.7% (+1.1% 4-wks); Volume -4.8% (-2.2% 4-wks); Pricing +4.3% (+3.3% 4-wks)
Nestlé: Sales +16.2% (+15.6% 4-wks); Volume +14.5% (+15.2% 4-wks); Pricing +1.4% (+0.3% 4-wks)
Spindrift: Sales +22.3% (+24.1% 4-wks); Volume +17.5% (+20.7% 4-wks); Pricing +4.1% (+2.8% 4-wks)
Waterloo: Sales +25.1% (+18% 4-wks); Volume +25.2% (+17.1% 4-wks); Pricing -0.1% (+0.8% 4-wks)
Liquid Death: Sales +16.9% (+14.9% 4-wks); Volume +4.2% (+2.8% 4-wks); Pricing +12.2% (+11.8% 4-wks)
Coffee Continues to Lose Its Buzz
The coffee category is still feeling fatigued, as sales slipped -4.8% (-4.6% 4-wks) and volume fell -10.4% (-9.3% 4-wks) while pricing jumped +6.3% (+5.1% 4-wks). Individual brands reported declines over the two-week period:
Starbucks: Sales -4.6% (-4.7% 4-wks); Volume -4.2% (-4.5% 4-wks); Pricing -0.4% (-0.2% 4-wks)
Black Rifle: Sales -0.9% (+1.2% 4-wks); Volume +1.3% (+3.7% 4-wks); Pricing -2.2% (-2.4% 4-wks)
Coca-Cola: Sales -10.5% (-10.6% 4-wks); Volume -9.8% (-10.4% 4-wks); Pricing -0.8% (-0.3% 4-wks)
Califia: Sales -11% (-10.1% 4-wks); Volume -11.5% (-11.9% 4-wks); Pricing -0.6% (-2% 4-wks)
Kitu Life: Sales +4.5% (+3.1% 4-wks); Volume +20.9% (+16.3% 4-wks); Pricing -13.6% (-11.4% 4-wks)
Coconut Water Continues Growth
Category sales climbed 13.1% (13.1% 4-wks) against a 6.1% increase in volume (+6.6% 4-wks) and a 6.6% jump in pricing (6.1% 4-wks). Here’s how the category leaders fared in the two weeks:
Vita Coco: Sales +17.3% (+16.2% 4-wks); Volume +12.3% (+12.9% 4-wks); Pricing +4.4% (+2.9% 4-wks)
Harmless Harvest: Sales +3.2% (+4.4% 4-wks); Volume -6% (-4.3% 4-wks); Pricing +9.8% (+9.1% 4-wks)