The dog days of summer appear to be weighing on non-alcoholic beverage consumption as sales remained “healthy but modestly decelerated” in the two-week period ending August 9, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
Dollar sales were up +4.6% in the two-week period, no doubt a solid performance, but that was slower than the +5.1% reported in the four-week period and even with +4.6% in the 52-week period. The growth was entirely derived from pricing, up 4.6% (+4.2% in the four-week period), as volumes were flat (down from +0.9%).
Major categories like CSDs, bottled water and sports drinks moved in line with the overall trend – decelerating sales dragged down by volume slumps – but energy drinks and sparkling water managed to shine, accelerating their dollar sales growth during the two-week period.
Here’s how individual categories performed during the two weeks ended August 9:
CSDs
Dollar sales were up by 3.2%, compared with 4% in the four-week period. Volume sales dropped by 1.1%, hastening a slide from -0.1% in the four-weeks, as accelerated pricing of 4.3% (+4.1%) helped offset the decline.
The big three of The Coca-Cola Company (+3.1% dollar sales, -2% volume), PepsiCo (+1.7% dollar sales, -2.2% volume) and Keurig Dr Pepper (+3.2% dollar sales, -1.9% volume) all reflected the trend, with average pricing growth accelerating for each company as well.
Independent brands may have overall higher growth rates, but they too decelerated in the four-week period: Olipop’s soft drink sales grew 21.8% (+24.6%) and volume by 23.8% (+24.5%) while Zevia rose 18.2% in sales (+18.5%), but with mildly higher volume growth at 16.8% (+16.6%).
Energy Drinks
Energy sales revved up to 16.3% growth in the two-week period, gaining on 15.4% growth in the four-week period. Volume remained strong at 14%, improving from 12.2% in the four-weeks.
The higher growth occurred as average pricing slowed to 2.1%, decelerating from 2.8% in the four-week period.
Monster, excluding Bang (+9.3% sales, +1.7% volume) did see mild deceleration in dollars sales from 9.7% in the four-week period, while Red Bull (+13.6% sales, +14.3% volume) and Celsius (+51.9% sales, +42.1% volume) gained momentum.
PepsiCo (-12.7%) and 5-Hour Energy (-6.8%) have continued to battle sales declines and PRIME has plummeted -83% to just $23 million in annual retail dollar sales. Meanwhile, emerging performance energy brands Nutrabolt/C4 (+14.5%) and Ghost (+17.8%) remain elevated.
Bottled Water
Bottled water sales were down 0.7% in the two-week period, slipping from +0.5% in the four-week period. Volume played out similarly at -0.3% (+1%). Average pricing fell -0.4%, roughly in line with -0.5% in the four-weeks.
Private label sales, which top the category, dropped 1.2% (+0.6% in the four-week period), while branded water leader Primo Brands gained 2% in sales (+2.9% for four-weeks). Coke (+5.1%), PepsiCo (-14.4%) and The Wonderful Company (+3%) decelerated in the two-weeks and Nestlé Holdings (-2.7%) was flat between the two- and four-weeks.
Liquid Death dropped 14.7% in the two-weeks, worsening from -13.9% in the four-week period as volumes were down a steep -20.6% (-19.6%).
Sports Drinks
Despite the summer heat, sports drink dollar sales were negative at -0.1% in the two-week period (+1.4% for four-weeks). Flat volume between the two- and four-weeks along with lower pricing at -0.1% (+0.7%) was behind the decline,
PepsiCo, maker of Gatorade, once again underperformed the category at -1.1% dollar sales (-0.1%) and -0.6% volume (-0.8%), while Coke’s portfolio of BodyArmor and Powerade reported decelerated sales growth of 4.1% (+6.7%) and volume up by 6% (+7.6%). Electrolit was up 28.3% (+30.9%) and volume improved by 27.7% (+30%).
PRIME’s performance in hydration was not as bad as its fall in energy, but the brand still reported plummeting dollar sales at -52.5% in the two-week period (-53%) and volume declines of -52.2% (-53.2%). Average pricing growth was just +0.5% (+0.7%).
Sparkling Water
Sparkling water sales gained at +8.9% in the two-week period, up from 8.2% in the four-week period. Volume sales grew 3% (+2.6% for four-weeks) and average pricing increased by 5.7% (+5.5% for four-weeks).
Top brand Talking Rain (+0.3%) decelerated in the two-weeks from +1% in the four-week period while LaCroix (-4.4%) and PepsiCo (-6.6%) declined.
Private label sales (+1.2%), Coke (+3%) and Liquid Death (+18.7%) remained positive but decelerated in the two-week period while Polar (+4.5%), Nestlé Holdings (+21.6%), Spindrift (+35.9%) and Waterloo (+26%) lifted the category with accelerated sales growth.
Coffee
Ready-to-drink coffee sales fell by 3.5% in the two-week period, a modest improvement from -4.1% in the four-week period. Volume was down by 10% (-10.1% for four-weeks) while average pricing leapt up 7.2% (+6.6%).
Category leader Starbucks held the category back at -3.9% sales declines (-4.2%), but Coke (-9.6%) and Califia Farms (-14.3%) hardly fared better.
Danone North America, which makes SToK, reported solid sales growth of +5.7% (+5.1%), while Black Rifle Coffee Company (+0.2%) and Super Coffee (+6.7%) accelerated as well.
Coconut Water
Growth remained elevated at +12.9% in the two-week period, but coconut water sales also decelerated, down from +13.1% in the four-week period. Volume sales grew just 0.5% (+3.2% for four-weeks) and average pricing increased by 12.3% (+9.5%)
Vita Coco outperformed the category at +14.7% dollar sales against a -0.8% volume slide. Harmless Harvest improved sales 7.4% as did Goya (+9.5%), C2O (+11.8%) and Brooklyn Bottling Group (+12.5%).