Volume growth decelerated on a sequential basis across beer, wine, spirits and flavored malt beverage categories, while holding relatively steady across hard seltzer in the two-week period ending August 12, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research. NielsenIQ uses US xAOC (eXtended All Outlet Combined) including Convenience Stores to summarize multi-channel markets and aggregate all national cross-outlet market data, and includes certain retailers (such as Whole Foods) that other providers do not.
- Dollar sales were up 3.3% in the two-week period, compared to 3.6% in the four-week period in line with the 3.7% growth in the 12-week period.
- Meanwhile volumes declined 2.4% in the the two-weeks just above a -2.2% drop in the four-weeks.
- Average pricing rose 1.9% in the two-weeks, moderating from 2.4% in the 12-weeks.
Ready-to-Drink Cocktails
Dollar sales growth continued for spirit-based RTD, up 40.2% in the two-week period, versus 42.3% for the four-weeks and 46.6% for the 12-weeks. Wine-based RTD sales were also up 14.8% for the two-week period, compared to 12.6% in the four-weeks and 10.3% in the 12-weeks.
- High Noon experienced robust sales growth, up 46.8% for two-weeks, with volumes up 37.6% and pricing up 6.7%.
- Cutwater sales rose 36.3%, with volumes up 32.7% and pricing up 2.6%.
- Jack Daniels’ RTD dollar sales were up 218.2% for two-weeks, albeit off a low base, with volumes reporting the same and pricing nearly flat up 0.1%.
- Dogfish Head Cocktail dollar sales sharply decelerated, down -4.8% for the two weeks, versus 3.1% in the four-weeks and 25.2% in the 12-weeks.
- Fresca Mixed Cocktail continued to gain momentum following its recent launch in late 2022 with dollar share continuing to build to and all commodity volume in the mid-20s (compared to High Noon at around 80%.)
Flavored Malt Beverages
Category sales growth remained strong, up 18.8% for two-weeks in line with 18.9% in the four-weeks and 20.1% for the 12-weeks.
- Hard Tea was up 43.7% for two-weeks, led by Twisted Tea with sales growth holding strong, up 39.7% for two-weeks and 42.6% for the 12-weeks.
- Hard Lemonade sales decelerated, down -1.3% in the two-week period versus -0.5% in the four-weeks and 5.8% for the 12-weeks. In that category, Simply Spiked sales sharply decelerated, up 2.1% for the two-weeks, compared to 7.7% in the four-weeks and 46.3% in the 12-weeks.
- Hard Soda dollar sales were up 51.8% for two-weeks led by Hard Mtn Dew (although sales are slightly decelerating), up 26.9% in the two-week period versus 33.7% in the four-weeks and 27.6% in the 12-weeks.
Hard Seltzer
The broader deceleration of the hard seltzer category reflects an increasing interest in newer alcoholic beverage categories such as RTDs, according to analysts.
- Category dollar sales growth declines held relatively steady in the most recent period, down -16.5% in the two-week period versus -18.4% for the 12-weeks.
- Retailer contacts in the company’s Q2 “Beverage Bytes” survey expect category sales to decline -5% in fiscal year 2023, in line with prior survey expectations.