Non-alcoholic beverage sales slowed across all channels over the two-week period ending on July 3, 2021, according to an analysis of Nielsen data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research. Yet overall growth remains positive — on a two-year stack basis, total non-alcoholic sales are up 15.5% — and growing momentum behind the on-premise channel (+5.1% over the two weeks) are causes for optimism. Here’s the full breakdown.
Major Corps Lose Some Steam
Total sales for The Coca-Cola Company over the two-week period were up 2.8%, down from 4.2% over the four-weeks and 4.7% over the 12-week period. Volume also continued to slide, falling from -2% for the four weeks to -3.5% in the two-week period.
PepsiCo also reported falling sales numbers against a backdrop of overall positive growth. Over the two-week period, sales were up 1.6%, decelerating from 3.1% growth in the four weeks and 5.7% in the 12-week period. On a two-year stack basis, sales are up 10.2% year-over-year for the two-week period.
Among the major brands, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) was the only one that fell into negative territory over the two-week period. After remaining flat for the four-weeks, total company sales were down around half a percentage point over the two-week period, while volumes slipped 4.8% year-over-year for the two weeks and average pricing ticked up 4.1%. On a two-year stack basis, the company reported sales were up 14.5% for the period.
Energy Powers Forward
Energy drinks bucked the overall downward trend in beverages with a small increase in sales over the two-week period, going from +10.9% in the four weeks to +11%. Red Bull led the way with a 12.4% increase in sales against a 12.6% rise in volume and an average pricing decrease of around 0.2%. Meanwhile, Monster reported two-week sales numbers were up 6.7% over the two-weeks, with both volume (+4.2%) and average pricing (+2.4%) also increasing. Elsewhere, Bang posted a 13.4% sales increase for the two-weeks (down from 14.2% for four-weeks) and Pepsi’s energy portfolio (Rockstar, Mountain Dew) fell 8.1%. On a two-year stack basis, Red Bull (+32.8%), Monster (+14.6%) and Bang (+6.7%) each reported gains, while Pepsi is down 13.4%.
Other Categories
CSDs (excluding energy): Americans continued to enjoy their favorite soft drinks in July, though slightly less than earlier this summer. Total sales growth for the category was up 0.8% during the two-week period (compared to +1.3% during the four weeks and +1.6% for the 12 weeks). On a two-year stack basis, CSDs were up 11.6% over the two-weeks, softening from 14.5% in the four weeks. Over the two-week period, Coca-Cola saw sales slide by half a percentage point, while Pepsi (+3%) and KDP (+2.3%) each reported gains. Among the three, KDP reported the largest increase in sales on a two-year stack basis — +19.9%, compared to +10.8% for Pepsi and 8.8% for Coca-Cola.
Bottled Water: Category dollar sales were up 8.7% over the two-week period, a decrease of four points from the four weeks. Danone reported the biggest sales gains during the fortnight, rising 22.8%, with Coca-Cola a distant second at 9.6%. Volume was up 4.6% and average price increased 3.9%. On a two-year stack basis, the category is up 11.3% over the two weeks.
RTD Tea: Momentum appears to be heading in the wrong direction in this category: after growing 4.2% over the 12-week period, sales were flat during the four weeks and down 1.5% during the two weeks. Independent brand Milo’s reported 28.6% increase in sales in that window; on the other side of the spectrum, KDP saw sales dip 19.1%. Total category volume was down 4.6%, while average pricing grew 3.2%. The caategory’s two-year stack basis sales were up 6.3%.
Sparkling Water: Bubbles continued to rise modestly during the two-week period, as sparkling water increased sales by .1% over the four-weeks to reach 6.5% growth. Volume also rebounded — up from 1.7% to 2.1% — while average pricing rose 4.2%. Within the mix, Coca-Cola (+26.3%) and Spindrift (+66.2%) were the pacesetters, in contrast to falling numbers for Nestle (-9.9%) and KDP (-18.1%). On a 2-year stack basis, sparkling flavored water sales were up a healthy 27.0% year-over-year for the two weeks.
RTD Coffee: Category sales were up 16.9% during the two-weeks, rising from up 16.6% during the four weeks. Pepsi-Starbucks, Danone, Coca-Cola, Califia Farms and Butterfly Equity (Bolthouse Farms) all reported double-digit sales gains, while total category volume was up 17.9% and average pricing down 0.8%. Over the two-weeks, the category’s two-year stack sales were up 36.7%.
Still Flavored Water: Category sales increased 7.9% for the two-weeks (compared to +10.4% for 4-wks). On a two-year stack basis, the category was up 22.2% year-over-year for 2-wks.