Declining volumes depressed growth in total non-alcoholic beverage sales during the two-week period ended on April 9, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
The deceleration was driven by falling volumes across all categories outside of energy drinks, which analysts believe “points towards early signs of demand destruction, as the U.S. consumer remains pressured from elevated gas prices and broader inflationary pressures.” On a two-year stacked basis, sales growth increased to 30% in the two-week period, which reflects volatility related to the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020.
Looking at major brands on a one-year basis, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) and Monster Energy Corp. all reported decelerating sales growth, which analysts noted is “likely reflecting pressure on consumer wallets as price growth remains strong.”
Sodas & CSDs
Dollar sales growth across all CSDs decelerated to 5.5% during the two-week period, slowing from +7.8% in the four-week and +10.8% in the 12-week period. Average pricing continued to tick upwards, rising from 13.4% in the 12-week period to 16.2% in the two-week window; meanwhile, volume kept falling, down 9.2% in the two-weeks. Among the larger players, Coca-Cola (+8.6%) and KDP (+5.8%) saw the biggest gains, while Pepsi was up just under 1%.
Rising prices and negative volumes were a problem for both full and reduced calorie sodas during the two-week window. Dollar sales growth for regular sodas was up 3.8% (+6.9% for the 12-weeks) and low-calorie was up 10.1% (+13.9% for the 12-weeks).
Energy Drinks
Though energy drinks reported the same declines in dollar sales growth seen in other categories — +5.7% for the two-weeks, +7.5% for the four-weeks and +11.3% for the 12-weeks — pricing also decelerated to just 1.9% growth in the two-week window. Monster (+5.5%), Nutrabolt (+160.6%) and Celsius (+215.8%) posted the biggest gains in dollar sales growth, while Bang (-13.1%), PepsiCo (-12.6%) and Coca Cola (-79.8%) faltered. Volume growth across the category was +3.8%. Red Bull also saw sales decelerate, but analysts noted this was “primarily decline in price growth” as volume was up.
Bottled Water
Bottled water reported dollar sales growth of +8.5%, compared to +11% in the four-week period and +13.9% in the 12-week period. Private label continued to lead the pack, only slightly down at 22.3% growth, while Blue Triton Brands (+4.9%), KDP(+5.2%) and Niagara Bottling (+12.4%) all reported gains. Pricing remained elevated at 9.6% but stayed flat from previous reporting periods. Meanwhile, volume declined nearly 1% across the category, a far cry from 8% growth over the 52-week period.
Sports Drinks
Now truly dominated by only two players, PepsiCo and Coca-Cola have each enjoyed strong double-digit growth over the last 52 weeks, but have slowed down as of late. The former reported 0% sales growth during the two-weeks, while Coca-Cola was up 2.2% (compared to +5.8% in the four-weeks). Volume declines are steep (-11.7% and falling), while average pricing came down to +16.7% in the two weeks after rising 17.5% in the four weeks.
Sparkling Flavored Water
Sales slowed but not as drastically as in other categories, with total dollar sales falling from +3.4% in the four-week period to +2.5% in the two-week window. Total volume trended down at -4.7% but pricing held relatively stable at around +7.5%. Spindrift (+18.1%) was the biggest winner in dollar sales growth, while KDP(-29.2%) saw the steepest decline. KDP also saw the biggest volume drop (-41.5%) and biggest price gain (+20.9%) over the two-week window.
Coffee
While up 13.9% for the 52-weeks, sales growth for coffee lurched into the negative zone over the two-week period, falling around 0.6%. Volume was down -2.6% (compared to +3.9% in the 12-weeks) and pricing was up at 2%. Califia Farms reported the largest jump in sales growth (+34.6%), while Coca-Cola saw the biggest drop (-23.2%).