Non-alcoholic beverage retail growth remained positive, up 13% over the two week period ending January 14, 2023, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research. However, sales decelerated year-over-year as increases in average pricing (+15.9%) drove volume down (-2.9%).
Double digit price growth hit almost all non-alc categories including CSDs, energy drinks, sport drinks and bottled water. On a three-year stack basis, total dollar sales were stable across most categories, growing 38.2% in the two-weeks. That rate was partially offset by slower sales in bottled water and still flavored water.
CSDs
Carbonated soft drink sales decelerated but remained positive, up 14.9% in the two weeks. The slowed momentum was attributed to steep volume declines (-2.4%) coupled with accelerated pricing growth (17.8%). On a three-year stack basis, CSD sales grew sequentially.
Sales growth decelerated for category leaders, The Coca Cola Company (+17.2%) and PepsiCo (+8.9%), in the two-weeks compared to the 18% and 10.3% increases each respectively saw over the four-week span. Coke’s slowed growth reflected heightened volume declines, -1.2% over the two-weeks, compared to 0.3% at the four-weeks, while pricing growth remained on an upward track, rising 18.7%.
PepsiCo saw similar volume declines, dropping from -4% at the four-weeks to -6% at the two-weeks, despite stable pricing growth. For Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) sales remained stable at 15.6% growth in the two-weeks and remained around that rate over the four- and 12-week periods.
Energy
Sales growth accelerated across the energy drink category in the two-weeks, driven by volume growth and robust but stable pricing increases. Total dollar sales rose 17.1% in the period, versus +14.6% in the four-weeks while volumes rose 6.2% (versus 4.1% at four-weeks) and prices hit 10.2% growth having remained around that rate over both the four- and 12-week periods.
On a three year stack basis, dollar sales in the category increased sequentially by 39.3%. Category leader Monster saw sales accelerate 16.8%, versus the 14.1% growth during the four-week period. Red Bull sales accelerated to 15.6% while volumes sequentially increased and pricing remained stable. Bang sales continue to fall, down 43.3% in the period compared to the 43.7% and 20% drops it saw in the four-week and 52-week periods, respectively.
Total dollar sales for PepsiCo’s energy portfolio modestly accelerated from 0.7% at the four-weeks to 1.6% during the two weeks after reporting continued deceleration over the 52-week period. Celsius sales decelerated slightly to 135.4% growth in the two-week period.
Other energy brands saw mixed but relatively stable results. Starbucks and Alani Nu both saw modest sales increases, within 1% increases compared to growth during the four-weeks. Nutrabolt/C4 and ZOA saw sales slightly decelerate while Ghost reported a steeper slow down as sales dropped to +949.5% in the period compared to +1020.5% in the four-weeks.
Bottled Water
Total dollar sales decelerated across the bottled water category largely due to accelerated volume declines and pricing growth. Sales were up 12.8% in the two weeks compared to the 14.7% growth seen during the four-weeks. Volume growth dropped from a flat rate at the four-weeks and into the negatives at a -3% decline during the 2-weeks while pricing grew from 14.7% to 16.3% over the same periods.
Blue Triton (+14.9%), PepsiCo (+3.7%), Crystal Geyser (+7%) and private label brands (+21%), each saw sales modestly decelerate in the two week period while Coke (+7.1%), POM Wonderful (+4.7%), Essentia (+7.2%) and KDP (10.8%) all reported slight sales growth.
Sports Drinks
Category sales in sports drinks decelerated to 6.9% growth in the two-weeks compared to the 8.6% jump the category saw during the four-weeks. Volume growth took a hit, dropping from a 5% decrease in the four-weeks to a 6.7% decrease during the two-week period. Pricing growth in the category has remained stable, around 14%, over the past year. PepsiCo (Gatorade) saw sales decelerate to +9.8% (down from +12.4% in the four-weeks) and Coke (BodyArmor and Powerade) saw a slight sales recovery, moving from -9.3% during the four-weeks to -8.9% during the two-weeks.
Sparkling and Still Flavored Water
Sales for sparkling flavored water decelerated from +5.2% in the four-week period to 4.3% over the two-weeks as volume continued to drop, reaching -6.4% and average pricing growth in the category remained stable. Sales growth in the still flavored water category was stable at 1.7% in both the two- and four-weeks while volume continued to decline (-15.1%) and pricing growth slightly increased.
Sparkling flavored water category leaders saw sales decelerate including Talking Rain (-1.9%), Polar (+15%), Spindrift (+35.1%), Nestle (-33%) and Wis-Pak/BUBBL’R (+53.1%). PepsiCo and La Croix saw no change in sales growth and Coke (-18.2%) and Waterloo (+38.6%) reported slight growth. Among still flavored water brands, HINT saw the most significant change, with sales falling deeper from -3.5% at the four-weeks to -7.5% during the two-week period.
RTD Tea and Coffee
RTD Coffee sales slightly increased, reaching +11% in the two weeks versus 10.9% during the four-week period. Volume slightly decelerated (7.1% versus 9.7%) and pricing growth jumped from 1.1% at four-weeks to 3.6% over the two-weeks. Category leaders saw relatively stable growth in the two weeks compared to the four-week period with the expectation of Black Rifle Coffee Company which saw sales jump from 61.7% in the four-weeks to 71.4% in the two weeks.
RTD Tea sales remained stable, around the mid 15% mark for the past 12-weeks while volumes have incrementally declined to -3.2% and pricing growth reached 13.2%. Among all the category leaders, total dollar sales decelerated slightly.