Nielsen Look-In: Soft Drink Sales Slowed in Late September

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It’s becoming a familiar story: weaker volumes again weighed down sequential non-alcoholic beverage sales growth in the two-week period ending October 4, according to Goldman Sach’s latest analysis of NielsenIQ data, including xAOC and convenience, plus Amazon.

Volume sales were down 6.7% in the two-week period (-3.7% for the four-week period and -1% for 12-weeks), while dollar sales were up by 2.9% (3.8% for four-weeks and 4.4% in the 12-week period). Average pricing growth rose by 9.6%, compared with a 7.5% increase for the four-week period and 5.4% for the 12-week period.

Energy Sales Stand Out

The energy category reported dollar sales growth of 13.7%, about in line with 13.6% growth in the four-week period and 14.4% in the 12-week period. Volume sales remained elevated at +10.9% (+11.1%/+11.4% for the 4-week and 12-week periods, respectively) while average pricing was up a mild 2.5% (+2.2%/+2.6% 4-wks and 12-wks).

Here’s how individual brands performed during the two-week period:

  • Monster (excluding Bang): Sales +10.7% (+10.6%/4-wks); Volume +3.7% (+4% 4-wks); Pricing +6.8% (+6.3% 4-wks)
  • Red Bull: Sales +9.6% (+10.1% 4-wks); Volume +9% (+9.9% 4-wks); Pricing +0.5% (+0.1% 4-wks)
  • Celsius: Sales +32.8% (+30.7% 4-wks); Volume +34.2% (+31.8% 4-wks); Pricing -1.0% (-0.8% 4-wks)
  • PepsiCo (not including Celsius): Sales -9.9% (-10.8% 4-wks); Volume -9.5% (-10.1% 4-wks); Pricing -0.5% (-0.7% 4-wks)
  • Nutrabolt: Sales +8.6% (+10.1% 4-wks); Volume +19.7% (+21.9% 4-wks); Pricing -9.3% (-9.7% 4-wks)
  • GHOST: Sales +21.5% (+21.4% 4-wks); Volume +20.7% (+20.0% 4-wks); Pricing +0.7% (+1.1% 4-wks)

CSDs Decelerate with Volume Slide

Carbonated soft drinks were up 2.9% in the two-week period (+3.2% for 4-weeks) against a -3.2% volume decline (-2.4% for 4-wks) and an average price hike of +6.2% (+6% 4-wks).

Segmented out, low-calorie CSDs were up 8.3% in the two-weeks (+8.7% 4-wks) against +3.5% volume (+4.1% 4-wks) and +4.6% pricing (+4.4% 4-wks) while regular CSDs accounted for the overall drag at just +0.5% sales (+1.2% 4-wks), -6.5% volume (-5.5% 4-wks) and +7.5% pricing (+7.1%).

Here’s the two-week combined CSD numbers:

  • Coca-Cola: Sales +2.4% (+3.2% 4-wks); Volume -1.0% (-0.1% 4-wks); Pricing +3.5% (+3.3% 4-wks)
  • PepsiCo: Sales +1.1% (+1.1% 4-wks); Volume -12.2% (-11.5% 4-wks); Pricing +15.2% (+14.3% 4-wks)
  • Keurig Dr Pepper: Sales +2.8% (+3.9% 4-wks); Volume -1.9% (-0.5% 4-wks); Pricing +4.9% (+4.5% 4-wks)
  • OLIPOP: Sales +23.5% (+25.5% 4-wks); Volume +25.5% (+27.8% 4-wks); Pricing -1.5% (-1.8% 4-wks)
  • Zevia: Sales +22.6% (+14.8% 4-wks); Volume +30.1% (+14.7% 4-wks); Pricing -5.7% (+0.1% 4-wks)

Bottled Water Falls

Bottled water sales dropped by 6.6% (-3.5% 4-wks) as volume took a double-digit -11.1% hit (-6.1% 4-wks) and average pricing failed to make up the difference at only +5.1% (+2.8% 4-wks).

Here’s how waters performed in the two-week period:

  • Private Label: Sales -0.4% (-4.0% 4-wks); Volume -10.9% (-5.1% 4-wks); Pricing +1.8% (+1.2% 4-wks)
  • PRIMO Brands: Sales -5.4% (-2.8% 4-wks); Volume -7.5% (-4.2% 4-wks); Pricing +2.3% (+1.5% 4-wks)
  • Coca-Cola: Sales +2.5% (+3.9% 4-wks); Volume +0% (+5.3% 4-wks); Pricing +2.5% (-1.4% 4-wks)
  • Pepsico: Sales -16.3% (-15.1% 4-wks); Volume -32.7% (-29.5% 4-wks); Pricing +24.4% (+20.5% 4-wks)
  • Keurig Dr Pepper: Sales -5.9% (-6.2% 4-wks); Volume -8.8% (-9.8% 4-wks); Pricing +3.2% (+4.0% 4-wks)
  • Supplying Demand (Liquid Death): Sales -18.0% (-19.9% 4-wks); Volume -21.0% (-23.1% 4-wks); Pricing +3.8% (+4.2% 4-wks)

Sports Drinks Maintains Pace

Hydration and sports drinks hit modest sales growth of 1% in the two-weeks (+0.8% 4-wks). Volume sales fell by 0.9%, even with the four-week period, while average pricing was up by 2% (+1.7% 4-wks).

Here’s how the brands performed in the two-weeks:

  • PepsiCo (Gatorade): Sales -0.7% (-0.8% 4-wks); Volume -3.4% (-2.8% 4-wks); Pricing +2.8% (+2.1% 4-wks)
  • Coca-Cola (PowerAde/BodyArmor): Sales +5.7% (+5.2% 4-wks); Volume +6.8% (+5.2% 4-wks); Pricing -1.1% (-0.1% 4-wks)
  • Electrolit: Sales +26.3% (+27.3% 4-wks); Volume +19.8% (+20.8% 4-wks); Pricing +5.5% (+5.4% 4-wks)
  • PRIME: Sales -48.0% (-49.2% 4-wks); Volume -45.2% (-47.0% 4-wks); Pricing -5.1% (-4.3% 4-wks)

Sparkling Water Stays Consistent

Sparkling water sales were relatively stable, up 6.3% in the two-week period (+6.2% 4-wks) against +0.8% volume (+0.9% 4-wks) and +5.4% pricing (+5.2% 4-wks).

Here’s the brand results for the two-week period:

  • Talking Rain: Sales -0.2% (-0.4% 4-wks); Volume -3.4% (-2.4% 4-wks); Pricing +3.3% (+2.1% 4-wks)
  • Nestlé: Sales +10.5% (+11.7% 4-wks); Volume +3.9% (+7.8% 4-wks); Pricing +6.4% (+3.6% 4-wks)
  • La Croix: Sales -4.2% (-4.7% 4-wks); Volume -9.4% (-10.6% 4-wks); Pricing +5.7% (+6.6% 4-wks)
  • Polar: Sales +13.8% (+9.7% 4-wks); Volume +13.3% (+9.3% 4-wks); Pricing +0.4% (+0.4% 4-wks)
  • Spindrift: Sales +29.5% (+28.6% 4-wks); Volume +32.6% (+27.7% 4-wks); Pricing -2.4% (+0.7% 4-wks)
  • Waterloo: Sales +11.3% (+13.4% 4-wks); Volume +11.7% (+14.0% 4-wks); Pricing -0.4% (-0.5% 4-wks)
  • Liquid Death: Sales +15.0% (+13.6% 4-wks); Volume +6.1% (+3.9% 4-wks); Pricing +8.3% (+9.4% 4-wks)

Coffee Remains Down and Flat

RTD coffee sales were down 3% in the two-week and four-week periods as volume sales were off by 4.8% (-5.2% for 4-wks), which offset pricing growth of 1.9% (+2.3% for 4-wks).

Here’s the brand breakdown:

  • Starbucks: Sales -5.5% (-4.8% 4-wks); Volume -6.5% (-4.8% 4-wks); Pricing +1.0% (0% 4-wks)
  • Danone (STOK): Sales +3.1 (+5.3% 4-wks); Volume +6.5% (+4.8% 4-wks); Pricing -3.2% (+0.4% 4-wks)
  • Black Rifle: Sales -3.2% (-2.8% 4-wks); Volume -1.7% (+0.4% 4-wks); Pricing -1.6% (-2.4% 4-wks)
  • Coca-Cola: Sales -7.8% (-9.5% 4-wks); Volume -8.2% (-10.9% 4-wks); Pricing +0.5% (+1.5% 4-wks)
  • Califia Farms: Sales +15.0% (+5.9% 4-wks); Volume +34.7% (+14.8% 4-wks); Pricing -14.6% (-7.8% 4-wks)
  • Kitu Life: Sales -20.7% (-19.2% 4-wks); Volume -14.1% (-12.6% 4-wks); Pricing -7.7% (-7.6% 4-wks)

Coconut Water Stays Small But Mighty

Coconut water sales were up double digits in the two-week period at +13% (+15.8% 4-wks) with volume up by 3.9% (+8.7% 4-wks) and average pricing growing by 8.8% (+6.5% 4-wks).

Here’s how the individual brands did:

  • Vita Coco: Sales +18.1% (+24.3% 4-wks); Volume +8.4% (+19.1% 4-wks); Pricing +9.0% (+4.3% 4-wks)
  • Harmless Harvest: Sales +2.5% (+4.0% 4-wks); Volume -10.3% (-6.4% 4-wks); Pricing +14.2% (+11.1% 4-wks)
  • Goya Foods: Sales +4.0% (+3.8% 4-wks); Volume -8.5% (-8.3% 4-wks); Pricing +13.6% (+13.3% 4-wks)
  • C20 Pure Coconut Water: Sales +28.0% (+24.2% 4-wks); Volume +26.4% (+20.6% 4-wks); Pricing +1.3% (+3.0% 4-wks)