Volume growth improvement over the Fourth of July holiday helped fuel non-alcoholic beverage sales over the two-week period ending July 18, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
Dollar sales rose to 13.1% year-over-year for the two-week period versus 12.5% for the four-week period and 11.2% for the prior 12-weeks. Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs) and bottled water fueled the volume growth, up 1.8% for the two-weeks compared to 0.5%/-0.2% for 4-weeks/12-weeks.
Overall price growth softened slightly to 11.4%. According to Goldman, on a three-year stacked basis – which “smooths for Covid-related volatility” – total dollar sales grew 30.3% year-over-year for the two-week period, led by CSDs.
Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs)
Dollar sales for soda were up 15.4% in the two-week period, compared to 14.2% in the four-weeks and 11.4% in the 52-weeks. The Coca-Cola Company led sales growth for the top three CSD makers with growth at 18.7% during the period, followed by Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) at 15.3% and PepsiCo up 10%. This reflects “an improvement in volume growth as price growth remained broadly stable,” Goldman analysts reported.
Volume growth for Coke was up 3.6% in the two-week period with KDP only rising 1.4% while PepsiCo dropped -6.5%.
Energy Drinks
Overall energy drink sales remained stable on a one-year basis, up 7.8% in the two-week period, flat from 7.9% in the four-weeks and 8.2% during the 12-weeks. Volume sales were relatively unchanged, up 3.1% in the two-weeks compared to 3.2% in the four-week period. Pricing was also stable at 4.5% during the two-week period, in line with a 4.2% increase in the last year.
Monster dollar sales grew 5.9% (+6% for four-weeks) with volume nearly flat at 0.8% (+1.1% over four weeks) and pricing in line with the category at 4.3%. Red Bull grew a modest 3.6% (+10.5% for 52-weeks) and volume only rose 1.8% (9.6% for 52-weeks). Meanwhile, Bang continued a downward trend with a loss of -16.9% in dollar sales during the two-week period and lost -18.1% in volume growth. PepsiCo was also down -8.2% in dollar sales and -12.2% in volume as pricing rose 4.6% over the two weeks. Sales grew triple digits for Celsius (+140.1%), Alani (+115.7%) and Nutrabolt’s C4 (+134.9%). Ghost jumped another 1286% in dollar sales with volume up 1231.1% in the 2-weeks.
Bottled Water
Total bottled water sales accelerated in the two-weeks, up 17.3% (compared to 16.6% growth for the four-weeks) also reflecting an improvement in volume growth (+3.3% in two-weeks) offset by softer price growth of 13.5% in two-weeks versus 14.4% in four-weeks. Private label sales rose 31.3% with volume up by 4% and pricing up by 26.3%. Blue Triton Brands grew 15% in the period while Coke was up just 9.2% and PepsiCo rose 6.3%. KDP (+35.9%) and Niagara (+30.1%) continued to make strides in dollar sales.
Sports Drinks
Overall sales were up 15.7% in the two-weeks while volume rose 2.7% and pricing rose 12.6%. PepsiCo’s Gatorade was up 20.9% in dollar sales compared to 20.4% in the four-week period and 12.8% in the last 52-weeks. Volume was up 8.7 % in the two-week period whereas pricing growth was relatively stable holding at 11.3%, versus 11.9% in the four-week period. Coca-Cola’s dollar sales fell -2% as volume was down -12.2%.
RTD Tea
Tea posted an 11% increase in sales growth in the two-week period versus 9.8% in the four-week. Volume was almost flat at 0.7% (-1% in two-weeks and -2.6% in four-weeks). Pepsi/Lipton Tea dollar sales were up 9.7% with volumes falling back at -0.5% compared to -3.1% in the four-week period.
Sparkling Flavored Water
Flavored sparkling water grew 7.1% in the two-week period, compared to 5.9% in four-weeks and 4.6% in 12-weeks. Pricing remained consistent, up9.2% (9% in four-weeks) and volume dipped to -1.9% (-2.9% in four-weeks). Dollar sales for Spindrift (+24.7%) and Polar (+55.9%) continued to improve.
Coffee
RTD coffee sales grew 3.9% overall during the two-weeks compared to 3.2% in four-weeks. Volume popped back up to 1.3% versus the -0.4% in four-weeks and -0.8% in 12-weeks. Average pricing was 2.6% higher in the two-week period. Starbucks (-3%) and Coke (-8.3%) sales contracted while Danone (+33.9%), Califia Farms (+26.3%) and Butterfly Equity (+9.5%) posted positive growth.
Still Flavored Water
Overall, the category was up 5.2% in the two-weeks with pricing up 19.5% and volume sinking -12%. Coke sales were up 2.5% and PepsiCo rose 5.3%.