NielsenIQ: Beverage Sales Accelerate as Volume Declines Soften

Non-alcoholic beverage sales picked up some momentum, accelerating sequentially while volume decline softened in the two-week period ending June 3, according to an analysis of NielsenIQ data by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.

Dollar sales in the two weeks grew 10.8%, up from 9.5% in the four-week period and even with the 12-week period. While volumes declined by -2.4% in the period, the slide was “less severe” than -3.6% for the four-weeks, Goldman noted. Meanwhile, average pricing remained heighted and “broadly stable,” up 13.3% in the period and +13.1% in the four-week period.

CSDs

Carbonated soft drink sales grew 13.5% in the two-week period, up from 12.6% in the four-week period and 13.2% growth in the 12-week period. Volume sales dropped by -3.4% (-3.9% in the four-weeks) as average pricing increased by 17.5% (+17.2% in the four-weeks).

  • The Coca-Cola Company outpaced the category, reporting dollar sales growth of 14.4%, with a -1.5% volume decline and a 16.1% pricing increase.
  • PepsiCo grew by 10.1%, compared to +9.6% in the four-week period. Average pricing growth of 18.9% drove sales as volumes worsened, falling by -7.4%, compared to -7.2% in the four-week period.
  • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) was up 14.3% (+13.1% for four-weeks) as the volume slide improved, down -4.1% for the two-weeks versus -5.3% in the four-weeks. Average pricing increased 19.4%.

Energy Drinks

Energy drink dollar sales picked up in the two-weeks, up 16%, versus 15% growth in the four-weeks. Volume was up 5.2% (+4.8% for four-weeks) while average pricing accelerated, climbing 10.3% (+9.7% for four-weeks).

Number three category player PepsiCo (Rockstar and MTN Dew) surpassed the billion-dollar threshold as dollar sales grew 11.7% in the two-weeks. The growth was driven by 18.9% pricing as volume declines worsened to -6% (-5.5% in the four-weeks). Performance energy player Celsius – which has an exclusive distribution agreement with PepsiCo – grew sales by 148.6% to $958.7 million.

  • Category leader Monster Energy was up 14.3% in the two-weeks (+12.9% for four-weeks) with volume improving by 3.3% and pricing grew 10.6%.
  • Red Bull grew by 12.5% in the two-weeks (+11.5% for the four-week period) with volume up 4.1% and pricing increased by 8.1%.
  • With its bankruptcy date once again postponed, now scheduled for June 30, Bang dropped -59.8% to $770.5 million in the two-week period, as volume dropped by -62.5% and pricing up 7%. The company was ordered by a court in April to remove all cans containing its “Super Creatine” ingredient from the market.
  • Other brands reporting double- and triple-digit sales growth in the two-week period included Nutrabolt/C4 (+72%), Alani Nu (+23.6%), Ghost (+148.7%) and KDP (+20.7%). Starbucks (-6.6%), A Shoc (-25.3%), Up Time Sports (-1.6%) and ZOA (-39.3%) saw sales fall.

Bottled Water

Water improved by 6.5% in the two-week period, accelerating from 4.2% growth in the four-weeks. Volume sales drops slowed to -1.2% (-2.9% in the four-weeks) with 7.9% average pricing growth. Sales data for private label products was not included.

    • Blue Triton Brands grew 4.3% in the period as 15.9% pricing growth offset a -10% volume drop.
    • Dollar sales for Coke were +8.9% (a sharp acceleration from +5.8% in the four-weeks) while PepsiCo was up 7.8% in the two-weeks (+3.5% for four-weeks).
  • KDP (+0.5%), Niagara Bottling LLC (+2.8%) and Danone North America (+17%) reported positive sales growth.
  • CG Roxane (-1.3%) and Fiji (-3.1%) reported dollar sales declines in the two-weeks.

Sports Drinks

Sports drinks sales picked up pace to +7.9% dollar sales growth in the two-week period, compared to 4.2% growth in the four-week period. Volume sales dropped -7%, improving from -9.4% for the four-weeks, while average pricing jumped 16.1%.

  • PepsiCo (Gatorade) grew 5.8% in the two-week period, with volume down -8.7% and pricing increased by 15.8%
  • Coke (Powerade) was down -6.6% in the period and its BodyArmor brand, listed separately in the data, was down -9.6%.
  • Mexican brand Electrolit accelerated its dollar sales to 16.9% in the two-weeks, up from 15% in the four-weeks, as volume grew 14.8% and average pricing was up by 1.8%.

RTD Tea

Liquid tea grew sales 6.1% in the two-week period, up from 5.4% in the four-weeks. Volume sales fell -5.6% and average pricing grew 12.4%.

  • Category leader Lipton was up 2.8% in the period, as volume fell -11.1% and pricing grew by 15.6%.
  • Coke was up 6.6% in the period, along with AriZona (+9.1%) and Milo’s Tea Company (+24.4%).
  • Yerba mate maker Guayaki reported sales up 28.2% in the two-weeks (+27% for four-weeks) driven by 21.2% volume growth and a 5.7% average price increase.

Sparkling Flavored Water

Sparkling flavored water sales grew 4.3% in the two-week period, compared to +3.9% in the four-week period. Volume fell -4.3% and pricing rose 9.1%.

  • Category leader Talking Rain reported a -1.6% dollar sales decline in the two-weeks, while second place player National Beverage Corp., maker of LaCroix, was up 3.5%.
  • PepsiCo (Bubly) grew sales 3.7%. Polar (+22.1%), Spindrift (+24.7%), Waterloo (+59.9%), and BUBBL’R (+38.3%) all saw double-digit growth in the period.
  • Coke (AHA) fell -29.7% in the two-weeks.

RTD Coffee

Coffee sales in the two-week period decelerated slightly to 5.5% (+5.9% in the four-weeks) as volume grew 1.2% and pricing increased by 4.2%.

  • Starbucks dollar sales grew 7% on 7.9% volume growth and a -0.8% average pricing decrease.
  • Danone (STOK) was up 13.6%, with +13.2% pricing and a volume bump of +0.4%.
  • Black Rifle Coffee Company grew dollar sales by 43.4%, with volume up 36.5% and average pricing up by 5%
  • Coke’s coffee portfolio was down -18.9% in the period as volumes dove -40.4%.

Still Flavored Water

Still flavored water dollar sales grew 9.9% in the two-week period, versus +7.2% for the four-week period. Volume sales fell -5.5% and average pricing was up by 16.3%.

  • Coke (+10.1%) and PepsiCo (+29.1%) saw positive dollar sales growth in the two-week period.
  • Hint was down -6.3% in the two-week period as volume fell -13.8% and pricing rose 8.7%.

Blue Triton (-30.6%), Kraft Heinz (-20%) and good2grow (-6.2%) all reported dollar sales drops.