The warm May weather doesn’t seem to have encouraged beverage sales, as non-alc volumes decelerated in the two-weeks ending May 31, according to the latest NielsenIQ data analysis by Goldman Sachs Equity Research.
It’s a trend we’re used to hearing by now: weaker volume sales were offset by price increases, leading to a modest 2% dollar sales lift for the two-week period, down from +3.4% in the four-week period and +4.3% in the 52-weeks.
The volume slump was seen across the shelf, from CSDs to energy, with pricing action appearing to be detached from the slowdown as even categories where average pricing came down, such as bottled water, took a hit.
CSDs
Dollar sales grew in line with the overall non-alc set, up 2%, decelerating from 2.6% in the four-week period. Volume declines worsened to -3.1%, compared with -2% in the four-weeks, with a +5.3% price jump (up from 4.8% in the four-weeks) offsetting the slide.
The Coca-Cola Company (+1.9% dollar sales, -4.6% volume) and Keurig Dr Pepper (+3.1% dollar sales, -1.6% volume) were reflective of the trend, while PepsiCo also reported negative dollar sales, falling by 1.9% with a steep 5.5% hit to volume.
Independents fared better, however. Olipop grew sales by 21.8% and volume by 25.3% (albeit decelerating from +28.4% sales and +35.4% volume in the four week period) and Zevia accelerated slightly, up 18.6% in sales and 21.5% in volume.
Energy Drinks
Energy sales slowed to 13.8% growth in the two-week period, versus 14.6% growth in the four-week period, while volume remained elevated at an 11% increase, down from 11.4% in the four-weeks. The declaration occurred even as pricing action also slowed, with an average increase of 2.5% in the two-weeks, down from 2.9% in the four-week period.
Monster, excluding Bang (+8.5% sales, +2.1% volume) and Red Bull (+16.9% sales, +17.8% volume) both reported deceleration, while Celsius picked up the pace at +26% sales growth, up from 23.5% in the four-week period and 13.9% volume growth, up from 11.5% in the four-weeks.
PepsiCo (-13%) and 5-Hour Energy (-6.7%) both posted dollar sales declines, while emerging performance energy brands Nutrabolt/C4 (+15.3%) and Ghost (+15.4%) continued to report elevated sales growth.
Bottled Water
Bottled water sales fell by 3.8% in the two-week period, worsening from a 1.1% drop in the four-week period. Volume fared about as poorly, dropping by 3.3% in the two-weeks, compared with a 0.7% slide in the four-week period. The slip occurred even as average pricing came down by 0.5%, about in line with a 0.4% dip in the four-weeks.
Private label sales, which top the category, fell by 1% (up 2.3% in the four-week period), while the largest branded water producer – Primo Brands – posted a 5.2% drop in sales (-1.5% for four-weeks). Coke (-2%), PepsiCo (-12.4%), The Wonderful Company (-8.7%) and Nestlé Holdings (-8%) all similarly saw sales declines in the two-week period.
Liquid Death also took a big hit to its still water sales, falling 13.1% in the two-weeks, mildly improving from -13.9% in the four-week period. Volume sales of the brand were down by 14.7%.
Sports Drinks
Sports drink dollar sales dropped by 9.2% in the two-week period, accelerating their decline from a 6.2% fall in the four-week period. A 1.1% increase in pricing (slowed from +1.3% in the four-weeks) slightly offset a double-digit 10.2% dive in volume sales (-7.4% for four-weeks).
PepsiCo performed worse than the category, falling by 11.3% in dollar sales and 12.3% in volume, while Coke’s portfolio of BodyArmor and Powerade reported sales down by 3.2% and volume down 2.7%. Electrolit, however, grew double digits by 26.6%.
PRIME’s pitfall has also kept pace, reporting sales down by 53.6% in the two-week period and volumes down 53%, with a 1.4% average pricing drop doing little to offset the plummet.
Sparkling Water
Sparkling water sales outperformed the overall NA space, but still decelerated, growing 6% in the two-week period and 7.1% in the four-week period. Volume sales were up by 0.8% (+2.3% for four-weeks) as average pricing jumped up 5.2% (+4.7% for four-weeks).
Top brands Talking Rain (-5.3%) and LaCroix (-1.8%) fell in the two-week period, as did Polar (-6.7%) and PepsiCo (-12.9%), but private label (+2.7%), Nestlé Holdings (+10.8%), Coke (+16.9%), Spindrift (+30.6%), Waterloo (+11.2%) and Liquid Death (+17%) gave the category its lift.
Coffee
Ready-to-drink coffee was down by 4.2% in the two-week period, compared to -3.8% in the four-week period. Volume dropped 10% (-8.4% for four-weeks) while average pricing spiked by 6.5% (+5% for four-weeks).
Category leader Starbucks was the biggest drag on the category, with sales down by 3.8%, but -10.3% from Coke and -24.7% from Califia Farms also reflected poorly in the category’s overall performance.
Danone North America, which makes SToK, reported sales accelerating to 1.7% growth in the two-week period (+0.7% in the four-weeks), while Black Rifle Coffee Company reported 7.3% growth.
Coconut Water
Even as growth remains elevated, coconut water sales also decelerated in the two-week period to 11.9%, down from +14.8% in the four-week period. Volume sales were up 8.1% (+10.5% for four-weeks) and average pricing decelerated to +3.5% (+3.9% for four-weeks).
Vita Coco slightly underperformed the category at +10.1% in dollar sales, while Harmless Harvest grew by 6.7%. Goya (+13%), C2O (+18.3%) and Brooklyn Bottling Group (+21.1%) reported strong, double-digit increases.